Wag the Dog? Bush and new best pal Jacque Chirac target Syria

With the quagmire in Iraq, the debacle of his Harriet Miers nomination and the looming indictment of the man he calls his political “architect” – Karl Rove, President Bush is clearly having an annus horribilis. And, just as the second terms of his recent predecessors were plagued by scandals (Reagan – Iran Contra; Clinton – Monica Lewinsky), he seems fated to an embarrassment of troubles to continue this phenomenon of the second term jinx.

But, ironically, another equally curious phenomenon might enable Bush to redeem (or at least salvage) his presidency: Remember Wag the Dog (the movie in which a character based on President Bill Clinton stages a war abroad to divert attention from his sex scandal at home)? Well, I have no doubt that Rove does; and, he can thank America’s erstwhile nemeses – the United Nations and French President Jacque Chirac – for providing this Clausewitzian opportunity to help him save Bush’s political hide, if not his own (from assault in prison).

Here’s how this can (and probably will) work:

Earlier this year, 15 February, I posted this article detailing America’s saber rattling against Syria. Back then, Bush cited a variety of grievances to justify his hostilities, but even his die-hard ally British PM Tony Blair showed little sympathy. Moreover, because he was still being bashed by Chirac and his coalition of those who were unwilling to invade Iraq, Bush was in no position to do anything except huff and puff at Syria.

However, that all changed last week when the United Nations published the report – notably by a German independent prosecutor, Detlev Mehlis – of an inquiry into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. And, as Bush could have told them, Giles and his investigators found that Syrian officials (including President Bashar al-Assad’s own brother and brother-in-law) were directly involved.

Therefore, it does not bode well for Syria that the UN Security Council is scheduled to meet today in a special session. And, the only item on its agenda is the examination of Syrian fingerprints all over the planning and execution of the mafia-style hit on Hariri.

Bush and Chirac are undergoing a metamorphosis into a formidable 2-headed political hydra to “bring Syria to justice”

The French reaction to this UN report, however, was as surprising to many as the American reaction was predictable. After all, despite the congenital obstructionism being proffered by his UN Ambassador, reliable sources confirm that Chirac seems just as determined to lead a coalition of the willing to get the Syrians as Bush was to get Saddam. And, where Chirac may not advocate invading Syria, he seems cocksure about regime change – “by any means necessary.”

Of course, at this point, Bush would welcome any leadership role he can play abroad that diverts attention from his woes at home. And, this wag-the-dog opportunity could not be more fortuitous. Far more intriguing in this regard, however, is Chirac’s motivation. Because where Bush might be wiggling in political quicksand (for the reasons mentioned above), Chirac is feeling that sinking feeling as well because of the arrest of one (and looming indictments of more) of his close aides over the oil-for-food scandal. Indeed, as this scandal continues to unfold, Chirac may actually be more eager than Bush to wag the dog. Because it’s becoming quite clear (and may ultimately be proven) that it was Saddam’s money, not international law, that inspired Chirac’s spirited opposition to Bush’s invasion of Iraq.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad knows full-well that his long neck is on the line for Hariri’s assassination (notwithstanding denials of personal involvement) and for undermining America’s efforts in Iraq

Nonetheless, what makes Syria an especially worthy scapegoat is the damning dossier the Americans have compiled on the Syrians: implicating them in harbouring Iraqi war criminals; conspiring with Hezbollah and Iran (as a mini axis of evil) to undermine the state of Israel; and, aiding and abetting the Sunni insurgency that is killing so many American soldiers in neighbouring Iraq.

But if ever there were a symbiotic relationship or strange bedfellows in international politics, this alliance between Bush and Chirac qualifies without parallel. And, the first synergistic step in their march of folly to do in Syria what Bush and Blair did in Iraq will be to ram a resolution through the United Nations calling for crippling sanctions against the Bashar al-Assad regime. (Notwithstanding the Saddam paradigm which shows, definitively, that the only people crippled by economic sanctions are the poor in target countries.)

Note to Bashar: Start building your rat hole now. And make sure it’s more hidden and better stocked than the one where the American’s found Saddam leading his army in the mother of all battles with a toy gun and a can of tuna….

Endnote to VP Dick Cheney: Your loyal aide “Scooter” Libby seems poised to rat you out. And, you may soon find that you’re the big fish special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald has been angling for, not Karl Rove. I suggest you retain a really good lawyer Mr Cheney….

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