Viva Chávez…?

Editorials from around the world were dripping with schadenfreude yesterday as they heralded the ‘first ever electoral defeat’ for Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez… Nevertheless, Chávez may yet have the last laugh.

[Referendum defeat actually vindicates Chávez, TIJ, December 4, 2007]

I remember well being criticized for sounding this cautionary note whilst other (more-authoritative) pundits were dancing on what they assumed was Chávez’s political grave.  The cause for their celebration of course was the surprising defeat of the “little red book” of constitutional reforms he championed, which were highlighted by an amendment that would’ve allowed him to serve as president for life.

But the indignation that permeated much of their criticism was probably incited by this commendation I offered Chávez in the wake of his defeat:

Nothing demonstrates Chávez’s (occasionally-thuggish) regard for the democratic process quite like the fact that he did not act like a dictator … by ordering his military to assault the tens of thousands of Venezuelans who took to the street last week to protest against his reforms.

Yet my cynicism about his leadership was such that I felt obliged to end this noted commentary with the following prediction:

[I]t would be reading far too much into this defeat to suggest that Chávez has been cowered. Because I have no doubt that he will continue to flex the formidable powers he retains under the existing constitution to rule Venezuela like, well, a de facto dictator.  And with another five years left on his term in office, it would be naïve to assume that this is the last we’ve heard of Chávez ‘s efforts to codify his socialist ideology and win popular support for his perennial presidency.

Accordingly, those who were dancing just over a year ago are probably in mourning today. Because, in a wholly predictable redo of his earlier defeat, Chávez won a resounding victory on Sunday on a referendum that will now allow him to serve as president for life.

It is also worth noting that his earlier defeat did not make Chávez cower in the least. In fact, he continued his Bolivarian Revolution last year by nationalizing the country’s cement industry and largest bank, which were pursuant to a nationalization crusade he launched in 2007 with the energy and telecommunications sectors.

Incidentally, the Bolivarian Revolution is a process whereby Chávez seizes control of the country’s oil revenues and confiscates private property and businesses to put them all “at the service of Venezuela.”  Concomitant with this, he institutes political and economic reforms to create his version of a socialist paradise … which he hopes to replicate throughout the Americas.

(Of course, with the feds seizing control of the banking and auto industries through ongoing bailouts, one can be forgiven the impression that a Bolivarian Revolution in now underway in the United States….)

Now it seems only death by natural causes will prevent Chávez from emulating his mentor Fidel Castro; i.e., by using Venezuela as a laboratory for quixotic socialist policies for more than 50 years … come what may.

Chávez seems poised to challenge America in ways no one could ever imagine Castro mounting. He has made no secret of his devotion to Castro. But where Castro’s dependence on foreign aid limited his regional influence, Chávez has the wealth of Saudi oil sheiks with which he can not only fund a Bolivarian revolution in his own country but also support similar revolutions in other Latin American states.

[Chávez replaces Castro as America’s foreign enemy #1 in the Americas, TIJ, August 4, 2005]

Despite his resources, however, I fear that, just as poor Cubans have little to show for having lived through Castro’s reign, poor Venezuelans will have no more to show for having lived through Chávez’s.

Finally, I feel obliged to disabuse my fellow pundits of the wishful thinking that the dramatic drop in the price of oil from $147 to $37 will either threaten Chávez’s hold on power or cause him to modify his political agenda.  After all, during his early years of consolidating power in Venezuela, the price of oil hovered well below $40 per barrel.

Viva Chávez !

NOTE: As one who still finds socialism politically redeeming, I am profoundly disappointed that Chávez has squandered a golden opportunity during his decade in power to vindicate this ideology in practice.  I have chronicled my disillusionment in this respect in related commentaries over the past four years and invite you to browse them to get a better sense of how this one fits in.

Related Commentaries:
Referendum defeat actually vindicates Chávez
Chávez replaces Castro…