Victor Wembanyama’s tall expectations
LeBron James entered the NBA Draft in 2003 as “The Chosen One.” Everyone expected him to be “the heir to Air Jordan.” And no one can deny that he met those expectations.
Victor Wembanyama is entering this year’s draft with similar media hype. Granted, no one is hailing him as the chosen one. But everyone expects him to be the heir to King James. I don’t think he will meet those expectations.
The ghost of Ralph Sampson
I hasten to clarify that I’m rooting for Wembanyama to do even better than LeBron. No teenager has ever handled themselves with more poise under predatory media scrutiny. And he seems grounded by a loving and supportive family.
But NBA history is littered with #1 draft picks who never lived up to their hype. No player fits this bill quite like Ralph Sampson. The media hailed him as the heir to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. But, at 7’4,” Sampson was even taller than the 7’2″ Jabbar.
Yet chances are you’ve never even heard of him. That’s because Sampson ended up being little more than a journeyman player who left no mark on the game.
By contrast, the names of big men like Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell, and Shaquille O’Neal still resonate. And that’s because, besides height, those men had imposing physical strength. No player could push them around like a “stick,” which happened to be Sampson’s fateful nickname.
So, it’s telling that even the relatively skinny Jabbar was muscle-bound compared with Wembanyama.
The weight in the NBA will prove too much
There’s no denying Wembanyama’s talent. Many analysts liken him to a cross between Steph Curry, Michael Jordan, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. And, sure enough, Wembanyama likes to play like a 6’4″ point guard inside the body of a 7’4″ center.
But he’s in for a rude awakening if he thinks his handle will enable him to crossover NBA players as if they were European players. After all, physical play in Europe is practically taboo. And any analyst who says otherwise is only rationalizing their own hype.
By contrast, physical play in the NBA is the name of the game. And the NBA is replete with players whose size is as impressive as their skill. They will manhandle Wembanyama like a twig.
I fear he will find this physical play even more unnerving than the last European sensation, Toni Kukoc, did. Remember him? No? Again, that’s my point.
Then there’s the specter of career-ending or career-hobbling injury. Sampson can attest to this. And no player seems more likely to suffer that than Wembanyama.
A future king or another could-have-been?
It’s easy to buy into the media hype. Viral clips show Wembanyama standing out in more ways than one. But that’s because he’s playing against smaller and less physical players than he’ll be playing against in the NBA.
Of course, the media are hyping him because that generates revenue-generating clicks and views. But NBA fans, especially those of the team that drafts Wembanyama, would be well-advised to temper expectations.