Venezuela votes to seize Guyana territory

Land grabs are rivaling military coups as the trending event in geopolitics. Venezuela is mounting the latest land grab. It is doing so today through a referendum on annexing an oil-rich region of Guyana.

The referendum will ask Venezuelans … if they agree with creating a new state called Guayana Esequiba in the Essequibo region, granting its population Venezuelan citizenship as well as identity cards and incorporating that state into the map of Venezuelan territory.

Guyana fears that the referendum could be a pretext for a land grab. ‘The collective decision called for here involves nothing less than the annexation of the territory in dispute in this case,’ Paul Reichler, an American lawyer representing Guyana, told the ICJ. ‘This is a textbook example of annexation.’

(Al Jazeera, December 3, 2023)

Everyone knows Maduro framed the referendum to his liking. He guaranteed the outcome would serve his political agenda.

Again, I suspect he aims to terrorize his weak neighbor psychologically. That’s why even approval of the referendum means nothing militarily.

Guyana’s Falklands regret

Guyana won independence in 1966. However, Guyana probably wishes it was still a British Overseas Territory like the Falklands (Islas Malvinas). After all, if that were the case, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would not even be thinking of seizing this territory. 

Margaret Thatcher rode her defense of the Falklands to a landslide reelection in 1983. Given that, Maduro might fear Rishi Sunak welcoming the prospect of a similar election outcome by defending Guyana.

Autocratic theatrics

Again, this referendum amounts to psychological warfare. Even the New York Times is reporting it as just a wag-the-dog diversion from domestic woes. 

Most notable is the US threatening to reimpose crippling economic sanctions. This threat comes because Maduro has reneged on his promise to implement democratic reforms. Of course, implementing them would lead to Venezuelans voting him out of power. 

Like Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Maduro is an autocrat. And like Putin, if he really coveted his neighbor’s territory, he wouldn’t bother with a vote. He would have used Venezuela’s historical claims (as an excuse, not justification) to invade Guyana.

Indeed, Maduro is taking a page out of Putin’s playbook. However, he’s using it more strategically. Maduro will emulate Putin by using this vote to declare the disputed territory a part of Venezuela unilaterally. He will then invite its inhabitants to begin identifying as Venezuelans. 

Recall that Putin infamously used sham referendums to declare the regions of Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk a part of Russia. But Maduro knows he does not need to invade Guyana to enforce his bogus claim.

A foregone conclusion 

I cannot overstate that the outcome of this referendum will be as legitimate as a three-dollar bill. And it will be as predictable as a soap opera plot. It’s a tale of autocracy, intimidation, and territorial hunger. 

Maduro is engaged in the age-old ruse of dictators feeding their people trumped-up nationalism to compensate for chronic economic malaise. And he fully appreciates that he can terrorize Guyana without firing a shot. 

It’s a show of force and an intimidation tactic. Direct military action is unlikely, but diversionary political theater is a certainty.