Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan straddles Western democracies and Eastern autocracies, much as Turkey straddles Europe and Asia. His politics are as ambidextrous as Turkey’s geography is strategic. And Erdogan has used Sweden’s application for NATO membership to display his ambidexterity.
Turkey greenlights Sweden’s NATO membership
Russia’s genocidal invasion of Ukraine scared Finland and Sweden straight. It moved both to submit applications to join NATO in May 2022. But they needed a unanimous vote for accession from the 30 existing members. And, from the outset, Turkey’s Erdogan clearly intended to make them pay and sweat.
He played Finland’s bid against Sweden’s to extract concessions from Sweden. That meant he spent the past 14 months haggling with them. It was like having the Finns and Swedes in Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar. And he was selling NATO membership as if it were a coveted trinket they were trying to buy.
This process even saw Erdogan divide to conquer. Only that explains him greenlighting Finland’s application in April – after making it sweat a lot but pay relatively little. That, while he continued to make Sweden sweat and pay a lot.
What price membership? A sultan’s ransom
And so, among other things, Sweden agreed to:
- Fight anti-Turkish terrorism on Turkey’s terms;
- Extradite Turkish dissidents, who Erdogan labels terrorists;
- Sell military weapons to Turkey; and
- Amend its Constitution to “beef-up” anti-terror laws. That is, to designate groups like the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Syrian People’s Defense Units (YPG) terrorist organizations. And to prevent people in Sweden from “insulting” Erdogan by protesting outside the Turkish embassy and burning the Koran.
Yet Erdogan knew all too well that he was bargaining with Sweden, all NATO members from the EU, and, above all, the United States. And he was hellbent on wringing every concession he could from all of them.
Most notably, Erdogan had been lobbying in vain for the US to sell Turkey 40 new F-16 fighter jets and upgrade kits for another 75. Sweden’s application proved just the bargaining chip he needed. The US finally agreed.
Turkey’s revenge
But all that bargaining power got to his head. NATO is holding its regular summit in Lithuania this week. And every other member was banking on officially welcoming Finland and Sweden as new members. On Sunday, Erdogan assured NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg that he was also on board.
But Erdogan couldn’t help himself. That’s why, on Monday, everyone woke up to this:
‘First, let’s clear Turkey’s way in the European Union, then let’s clear the way for Sweden, just as we paved the way for Finland,’ Erdogan said at a news conference.
(CNN, July 10, 2023)
We could hear the European groans across the Atlantic. But don’t blame Erdogan for playing that card. And I wasn’t surprised.
After all, Erdogan’s opposition was about more than Swedish laws or military weapons. It was also about the EU treating Turkey like a skunk for decades. Most notably, it refused Turkey’s application to join the European Union. And that, based solely on old-fashioned religious and racial bigotry. I reinforced this point just months ago. That was after Erdogan dashed the forlorn hopes of NATO and EU leaders by winning reelection decisively.
And, of course, he gave them heart palpitations with yesterday’s last-minute curve ball. But this new quid pro quo was only Erdogan’s way of reminding EU leaders how unfairly they treated Turkey. He was also showing that he could treat Sweden the same way if he were petty like them. But this was tantamount to Erdogan serving cold Turkey’s revenge.
The Ukraine card
In the post cited above on Finland’s joining, I predicted that it was only a matter of time before Sweden and Ukraine joined NATO. That’s because Erdogan was shrewd enough to keep himself in good standing by being one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters. He demonstrated this on Friday by inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Turkey.
Because he seized that occasion to upstage dithering NATO leaders, including US President Biden, by announcing that
There is no doubt that Ukraine deserves membership of NATO.
(The Guardian, July 7, 2023)
Of course, all members think Ukraine deserves membership. The only question is the time of Ukraine’s accession. And Biden will reclaim the stage with his bilateral meeting with Zelensky tomorrow. I expect him to provide the roadmap to NATO membership Zelensky has been lobbying for.
In any event, the prevailing point is how the Turkey tail wagged the NATO dog over these applications. It underscores the need for NATO to rethink its decision-making process.
NATO must get rid of its pollyannish unanimity rule. Because no one bad member should be able to spoil the interest of the whole organization.
To ensure agility and effectiveness, NATO should require only a supermajority of members to approve major decisions like admitting new members. After all, nobody wants Erdogan or any other leader playing this game when China’s invasion of Taiwan moves Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Australia, and others to join.
Still, even NATO members must have grudging admiration for the strategic way Erdogan played them. But their grudging admiration must pale in comparison to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s seething resentment.
After all, he launched his ill-fated invasion of Ukraine to limit NATO expansion on Russia’s border. Yet, thanks to Erdogan, his BFF, NATO’s expansion along Russia’s border has more than doubled. Even worse, Erdogan is the one championing Ukraine’s pending application.
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s attempted coup made Putin look weak. Erdogan’s pivotal role in this round of NATO expansion makes him look even weaker.