One of the potential hazards of publishing online commentaries is that it’s very easy for experts on any subject you’re writing about to expose you as an uninformed fool. In fact, I know extremely intelligent people who refuse to even submit online comments out fear of having them undermined by more informed comments.
Therefore, I suppose this makes what I do here every day either very daring or very masochistic (or both).
As it happens, however, I am often obliged to publish updates when new developments vindicate my commentaries and make fools of my most authoritative critics. And I take particular delight in doing so today – in light of the unity government that was formed in Zimbabwe yesterday.
Frankly, I have never been criticized more viscerally by more experts than I was for publishing a commentary on how the political stalemate, which has beset this beleaguered country for almost a year now, would eventually be resolved.
Specifically, I predicted that opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, the undisputed winner in presidential elections last March, would ultimately agree to serve in a unity government under his perennial oppressor, President Robert Mugabe. This, despite Tsvangirai vowing repeatedly that he would heed the near–universal admonition of world leaders to not only insist that Mugabe must resign but also avoid serving with him like the plague.
By contrast, here, in part, is the admonition I offered:
Like Kibaki and his ruling party [in Kenya], all indications are that Mugabe and his ruling ZANU-PF party lost close national elections that were held on March 29. Yet, like Kibaki, Mugabe refused to concede defeat, which also plunged Zimbabwe into post-election violence…
[I]t behooves Opposition Leader Morgan Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) to seek a grand compromise for a coalition government based on the Kenyan model. And they would do well to heed this advice because all political and legal maneuvers to oust Mugabe are doomed to fail.
[Kenya forms grand coalition: a model for Zimbabwe, TIJ, April 14, 2008]
Therefore, I consider it a small vindication for me and great hope for Zimbabwe that Mugabe swore in Tsvangirai as (his) prime minister yesterday.
Enough said…?
Now Mugabe can afford to be magnanimous. Indeed, I suspect he would be happy to confer the title of prime minister upon his politically cuckolded foe, Tsvangirai; provided, however, that that title is conferred with all of the political power wielded by a Nubian Eunuch.
[Mugabe swears himself in as president for life, TIJ, June 30, 2008]
Of course now comes the hard part. Because a unity government in name is one thing; how these two men will share power to govern the country is quite another. And, once again, they would do well to emulate Kenya, where a similar shotgun marriage appears to be working out relatively well.
The first priority is to stabilise the economy. The economic collapse has forced millions of our most able to flee the country. This must end today. [Zimbabwe can] no longer afford brother against brother, because one happened to have a different political opinion. (Prime Minister Tsvangirai)
I offer my hand of friendship and co-operation, warm co-operation and solidarity in the service of our great country Zimbabwe. (President Mugabe)
I wish them, and Zimbabwe, well….
Related commentaries:
Kenya forms grand coalition: a model for Zimbabwe
Mugabe swears in himself as president for life
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