I gather that many of you would like to know my predictions, here they are: Hillary will win Ohio, Texas, and RI, and Obama will win Vermont. Therefore, the race will go on…to Pennsylvania (on April 22). Still, Obama will win the nomination, and he will be elected the next president of the United States!
[Super Tuesday Part II, The iPINIONS Journal, March 4, 2008]
I hope it’s clear to all of you now that much of what passes for political analysis on TV is bullshit. Because you would’ve been hard-pressed to find any expert who predicted, as I did, that Hillary Clinton would win yesterday’s primaries in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island.
By contrast, I was right not only in my call of yesterday’s “do or die” primaries, but also in my analysis about of how the race for the Democratic nomination would unfold.
For example, here’s what I wrote on February 13 – as Barack Obama was racking up his string of 11 consecutive wins:
I feel obliged to admonish you again to ignore all of the punditry about who is leading the delegate count, or who has the biggest crowds at campaign events, or who has the most women, men, black, white, or Latino supporters.
Ignore the political spin about Hillary righting her ship – complete with a shake-up of her campaign staff – for a (Giuliani-like) last stand in the “big state” primaries of Texas, Ohio (on March 4) and Pennsylvania (on April 22).
And, ignore the hype about Obama’s messianic and inexorable momentum….
Because, when all is said and done, neither Obama nor Hillary will have enough delegates to clinch the nomination before the Democratic convention convenes this August in Denver, Colorado. And it will be truly interesting to see how the Party resolves this nomination deadlock at that convention….
Meanwhile, you’ve probably heard talking heads on TV spouting off about the pivotal role “superdelegates” will play at a brokered convention…. Nevertheless, I think the prospect of a bunch of politicians and “distinguished party leaders” deciding this race is grossly exaggerated. In fact, I’m convinced that the person who goes into the convention with the most pledged delegates (i.e., those duly won in the primaries and caucuses) will be the nominee.
Which brings me back to last night. Because, despite her impressive wins, Hillary has made virtually no dent in the lead Obama had among pledged delegates going into Super Tuesday Part II. In fact, today Obama has 1,307, Hillary 1,175.
Moreover, I predict that she will make no significant gains in this respect before the convention convenes in August. This is why I maintain that, though battered and bruised, Obama will be the Democratic nominee and the next president of the United States.
In the meantime though, it’s going to get really ugly. And in this regard, it might be helpful to recall that Hillary’s campaign (i.e., not John McCain’s) was the first to insinuate that, because Obama’s middle name is Hussein, he must be a closet Muslim who can’t be trusted. Frankly, as I warned in December 2006, when it comes to dirty tricks, the Clintons make Republicans seem like boy scouts.
So stay tuned, but ignore the pundits….
NOTE: No doubt many erstwhile Clinton supporters (like Rep. John Lewis) – who defected to Obama recently – are beginning to wonder today if they jumped ship too soon….
Related Articles:
Poor John Lewis
Super Tuesday Part II
Super Tuesday
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