Putin’s paranoia

I laughed at Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron sitting so far apart at a big marble table. It made them look like two wannabe Napoleons.

I thought Putin was trying to snub Macron. But then I noticed Putin keeping the same absurd distance from his own foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov. It wasn’t about Macron at all. Putin was revealing what every autocrat fears most: a plot to kill him.

The ‘dictators dilemma’

For autocrats, paranoia isn’t just a personality trait — it’s a survival strategy. Putin’s fear of assassination is rooted in historical precedent and current political dynamics. Dictators from historical and contemporary periods have faced betrayal and violent ends, often orchestrated by those closest to them.

Putin’s consolidation of power has inevitably created enemies. His relentless purges, crackdowns on dissent, and aggressive foreign policy maneuvers have generated a climate of fear and resentment.

That’s why his inner circle is both his support system and his greatest vulnerability. The oligarchs and siloviki (security service elites) who prop up his regime are not immune to ambition and discontent. The Kremlin’s corridors are rife with whispers of discontent, and in such an environment, loyalty can turn on a dime.

Putin’s paranoia in the shadow of invasion

Putin and Macron were discussing the looming prospect of Russia invading Ukraine. The chilling and ironic echoes of history resounded.

After all, Germany’s invasion of Poland led inexorably to World War II. So it’s all too easy to imagine Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggering World War III. The parallels are terrifyingly clear.

Echoes of Operation Valkyrie

This compels another parallel: Operation Valkyrie, the infamous plot to assassinate Hitler. Imagine the carnage that could have been avoided if German army officer Claus von Stauffenberg and his co-conspirators had succeeded.

Putin, notoriously isolated and paranoid, likely fears his inner circle might harbor similar thoughts. The idea of his generals wanting to spare the world from further bloodshed must haunt him.

Is there a Russian von Stauffenberg waiting in the wings? Despite Putin’s efforts to assassin-proof his life, history tells us that no fortress is impregnable.

I wouldn’t be surprised if a group of Russian conspirators are lying in wait. And here’s to them succeeding where their German predecessors failed.