With all due respect to critics and members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (the Academy), how much a film makes, not whether it wins an Oscar, is the generally recognized measure of its success. Especially considering that winning an Oscar is more the result of crass political campaigning than any assessment of artistic achievement.
Indeed, it might surprise, if not disillusion, many of you to learn that studios covet the Oscar for best picture primarily because — as Sumner Redstone, the owner of Paramount, conceded in a moment of extraordinary candor — it guarantees millions more in box office receipts.
(“My Review of the 2008 Oscars,” The iPINIONS Journal, February 25, 2008)
Sure enough, even the acerbic and irreverent Chris Rock failed last year to relieve the boredom that defines this show. I duly lamented my own vindication in “And The Oscar Goes To…,” February 29, 2016. Therefore, nobody should expect the canned and affable Jimmy Kimmel to do any better this year.
But at least he’ll be a more familiar (and comforting) face to the #OscarSoWhite audience – the Academy’s plainly self-conscious #OscarSoDiverse nominations notwithstanding. And, truth be told, Kimmel is probably ideally suited to serve as emcee for what will undoubtedly be an evening of grandstanding, anti-Trump quips.
In any event, here are my picks in the six categories most people care about:
- Actor in a Leading Role
Denzel Washington in Fences: Ben’s little brother Casey Affleck should be the prohibitive favorite to win for his breakout performance in Manchester by the Sea. Except that he has a black cloud of sexual-harassment allegations hovering over him. Frankly, fairness dictated that the Academy should have completely blacklisted him.
After all, it blacklisted Nate Parker, despite the fact that he had a similar cloud removed when he was duly acquitted of sexual assault … 16 years ago. No doubt, but for that black cloud in his distant past, Parker would have been at least nominated for The Birth of a Nation, which he wrote, produced, directed, and played the leading role in.
On the other hand, if any actor can win by such default and still be worthy of acclaim, it’s Denzel. Not to mention the inherent advantage he has, having already won a Tony in 2010 for playing this same role on Broadway. Significantly, a win would make him the first black to join the preeminent group of only six actors who have won three or more Oscars: Katherine Hepburn (4), Meryl Streep (3), Jack Nicholson (3), Walter Brennan (3), Ingrid Bergman (3), and Daniel Day-Lewis (3).
- Actress in a Leading Role
Ruth Negga in Loving: For playing interracial pioneer Mildred Loving every bit as convincingly as the aforementioned Day-Lewis played Abraham Lincoln, for which he won his third Oscar. Also, for the perverse joy of hearing her epithet-sounding surname announced – not just in passing as a nominee, but with distinction as the winner.
Unfortunately, the fix seems in for Emma Stone in La La Land. Never mind that Emma Stone trying to channel song-and-dance diva Ginger Rogers is rather like Sylvester Stallone trying to channel stage-and-screen legend Laurence Olivier.
- Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali in Moonlight: For portraying a crack dealer so endearingly against stereotype – complete with a social conscience. Mind you, I suspect most members will vote for him based more on the enigmatic and charismatic role he plays on the popular Netflix series, House of Cards.
- Actress in a Supporting Role
Viola Davis in Fences: For outperforming Denzel as surely as Ginger Rogers always outperformed Fred Astaire. Which raises the question: why wasn’t she nominated in the Leading Role category. Things that make you go hmmm …
In any event, it helps that, like Denzel, Viola won a Tony for the original Broadway play too. But I suspect the Academy will seize this opportunity to compensate for failing to award her an Oscar for Doubt in 2009 (and perhaps less so for The Help in 2012).
Incidentally, Naomie Harris gave a winning performance in Moonlight, besting her male counterpart, Mahershala Ali, just as Viola bested Denzel in Fences. The rub is that Naomie will have to suffer the Academy overlooking her this time, just as Viola suffered it doing the same to her on the two aforementioned occasions.
- Directing
Damien Chazelle in La La Land. For it would make no sense for the Academy to give this film 14 nominations, which ties Titanic and All About Eve for the most ever, and then fail to award its director an Oscar.
- Best Picture
La La Land: For the same reason The Artist won in 2011 – romantic nostalgia. But it’s actually understandable in this case; after all, who wouldn’t long for this kind of escapism given the dystopian reality we’re experiencing under Trump’s presidency.
This is why, even though Moonlight depicts an Oscar-worthy and socially redeeming picture of an otherwise sordid black-American experience, this is not the year for it to win top prize.
Related commentaries:
Oscar goes to…
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* This commentary was originally published yesterday, Saturday, at 7:22 a.m.