Anyone who is unnerved by predictions of a cataclysmic terrorist strike – of a magnitude 1000 times greater than 9/11 – will be petrified by predictions of a pandemic outbreak of Bird Flu. Because World Health Organisation (WHO) scientists are predicting fatalities of between 50 and 150 million people; and, they seem resigned to the fact that governments around the world will be as effective in protecting their citizens from this pathogen as the U.S. government was in protecting its citizens from the 9/11 attacks or the ravages of Hurricane Katrina.
Nevertheless, President Bush addressed this frightening prospect with unusual clarity and command of details during his White House press conference on Tuesday. And, he assured the American people that he’s not waiting for the outbreak to take charge; but that he’s marshalling all of the resources of the government today to prepare the nation (and the world) for Bird Flu pandemonium.
Unfortunately, for many people, relying on Bush’s word in this context is rather like relying on Bart Simpson for guidance in the event of an outbreak of nuclear war. Therefore, here’s a concise though comprehensive assessment from the BBC of the pending doom of the Bird Flu:
Global threat:
Scientists fear a global epidemic of deadly flu in humans will strike soon as this tends to happen three or four times a century.
Bird flu is the most likely trigger and one virus that causes it – H5N1 – is giving particular alarm.
Highly contagious and deadly in birds – and spread by them – this virus has also killed dozens of people since re-emerging in SE Asia in 2003.
Experts think it is only a matter of time before the virus changes and develops the ability to spread easily among humans.
Evolving menace:
A new variant capable of triggering a deadly pandemic could evolve if the avian flu virus combined with a human strain of influenza.
This could happen if a human had both infections at the same time.
It is feared the new variant would spread easily and quickly, killing large numbers of people, whose immune systems would not be primed to cope with infection.
Upwards of two million people could die globally and many more would be infected, experts predict.
Virus origins:
Bird flu viruses occur naturally in migratory waterfowl. They are passed on in droppings and other secretions.
Domesticated birds like chickens and turkeys are particularly prone to the more deadly variants that develop.
Once the virus is found in commercial or household flocks, rapid destruction is recommended of all birds that may be infected. Farms should then be quarantined and thoroughly disinfected.
Millions of birds have been killed in an effort to contain the latest outbreak and minimise risk to humans.
Human dimension:
Symptoms in humans who get H5N1 range from fever, sore throat and cough to severe respiratory illness and organ failure in fatal cases.
Since the first human cases appeared in the current outbreak in 2004, more than half those infected have died. Vietnam is worst affected so far.
Almost all victims were in close contact with infected birds.
But because the disease is not food-borne, experts say it is still safe to eat poultry.
Fighting the virus:
The 1918 flu pandemic killed more people than WWI.
At present there is no vaccine to protect humans against infections caused by H5N1 avian flu.
However work on prototypes continues.
Efforts are hampered by not knowing what form the virus would take if it mutates as feared.
However some anti-viral drugs which are available can help limit symptoms and reduce the chances the disease will spread.
Note: Many of these issues will be discussed at a Bird Flu World Summit today in Washington, DC. But this begs the question: Has anyone derived any reassurance from previous world summits on HIV/AIDS or famine in Africa? Be afraid people, be very afraid….
UPDATE: Today, 1 November 2005, President Bush announced a $7.1 billion initiative “to help prepare the country for a global epidemic of influenza”; insisting that “our country has been given fair warning of this danger to our homeland.”
News and Politics
Anonymous says
you’re a real cynic. but i think you’re right.