The Americans are warmongering – again.
I hope I can be forgiven for noting that I presaged this in “Preview of Gulf War III Starring Trump as Othello, Netanyahu as Iago, and Iran Desdemona,” May 7, 2019.
US President Donald Trump has dismissed Iran’s insistence it had no involvement with the attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman.
Mr Trump cited footage that Washington says shows Iranian forces in a small boat taking an unexploded mine off the hull of one of the ships. …
The blasts came a month after four oil tankers were damaged in an attack off the coast of the United Arab Emirates.
(BBC, June 14, 2019)
It’s impossible to avoid allusions to George W. Bush claiming that Iraq possessed WMDs. More to the point, you’d be forgiven for thinking that Donald J. Trump claiming Iran perpetrated these attacks is even less credible.
Trump’s pathological lying and notorious conflicts with his own intelligence agencies are discrediting enough. But crew members from the targeted Japanese tanker have blown gaping holes in his claims. For they insist that a fast-moving projectile caused the explosion, not a well-placed mine.
Meanwhile, Germany and France are raising red flags of doubt, torpedoing Trump’s efforts to build international consensus to target Iran: fool us once shame on you, fool us twice shame on us…? Never mind that, when it comes to the diplomatic art of persuasion, Trump’s secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, comes across like a pompous peacock; whereas Bush’s secretary of state, Colin Powell, commanded near universal respect … and trust.
What’s more, it can only heighten suspicion and dread to know that many of the same warmongers who goaded Bush into bombing Iraq are trying their damnedest to goad Trump into bombing Iran.
But here are some clarifying and reassuring points:
- War between the United States and Iran remains unthinkable, despite the political brinkmanship, saber rattling, and military maneuvers.
- All of the tankers involved were foreign-flag carriers, and none of the attacks resulted in any loss of life.
- Restraint has been the order of the day. Because, even if Iran is involved (and I think it is), these pin-prick attacks are no different than North Korea test firing ballistic missiles. This is just Iran’s way of variously flexing its (asymmetrical) muscles and demanding respect. Frankly, we should commend its restraint; after all, it’s arguable that the crippling economic sanctions the United States is imposing on it is just cause for war. By the same token, though, Iran has given the United States just cause to attack on many occasions over the past 40 years; therefore, we should commend its restraint too.
- Maddeningly, Trump is blowing fire and fury at Iran signifying nothing, just as he did at North Korea. No doubt you recall him warning that if “rocket man” continues threatening the United States, he will be forced to “totally destroy” North Korea. Well, now this:
If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran. Never threaten the United States again!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 19, 2019
- Only his juvenile mind could mislead him to expect Iran’s Ayatollah to play along the way North Korea’s Dear Leader did. Indeed, he clearly thinks it’s only a matter of time before he’s saying about the Iranian leader what he’s now saying about that North Korean leader, namely “we fell in love.”
Now, just like Syria, Iran is seeking security cooperation and guarantees from Russia. Of course, Russia is all too happy to oblige — complete with helping Iran deflect blame for these attacks no matter how certain its guilt. Russia is hell-bent on expanding its sphere of influence in the Middle East beyond what the Soviet Union wielded during the Cold War. And nothing demonstrates the geostrategic success it is having quite like NATO’s Turkey flirting with it on similar terms. (Meanwhile, these and other developing nations are looking to China for the political guidance and economic support the United States used to provide.)- Geo-strategic necessity might compel Iran to continue these attacks — if only to spike its oil revenues and spite America’s gas-guzzling drivers. But it would take care to avoid a direct attack against the United States that would trigger a military response. Mind you, Iran (via its Houthi proxy in Yemen) has already shot down a US drone and fired on another without triggering military retaliation. This indicates how far Iran is prepared to go. But it also betrays how wary or afraid Trump is of escalating tensions to full-scale war. It’s just that he has to bluster to feel worthy of the messianic flattery Iran-hating American neo-cons, Israeli Zionists, and Saudi Wahhabis heap on him.
To retaliate or show restraint? Toughen sanctions or negotiate? The US administration, divided between hard-line hawks and a Donald Trump who fears plunging the country into another ‘endless’ war, is struggling to define its strategy against Iran — as demonstrated by its uncertain response to recent developments in the Gulf of Oman.
(Agence France-Press, June 14, 2019)
- Expect this kabuki dance of Iran’s pin-prick attacks and America’s fire-and-fury rhetoric to continue. But, trust me, Hell will freeze over before the Ayatollah begins stroking Trump’s ego for futile summits the way Kim Jong un has.
- Return to normalcy has Iran banking on the 2020 presidential election (aren’t we all); that is, a new president committed to returning the United States to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (a.k.a. Iran nuclear deal). And this, even before he/she returns it to the Paris Accord on climate change and the Trans Pacific Partnership on trade.
- Security is the name of the game and North Korea has shown that only nuclear weapons can guarantee it. So one can hardly blame the Ayatollah for thinking it’s better to lead a pariah nation than to end up like Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi. This is why, notwithstanding the nuclear deal, Iran will emulate North Korea’spath to nuclear power—by any means necessary. Frankly, given Trump’s withdrawal from that deal, Iran would be foolish not to develop this existential guarantee.
Iran on Monday strongly suggested that it was about to reduce compliance with the landmark 2015 nuclear deal because of sanctions reimposed by President Trump when he repudiated the Obama-era accord.
The Fars report and others suggested that Iran would no longer abide by limits on uranium enrichment established by the accord, which was reached between Iran and six major powers including the United States.
(The New York Times, May 6, 2019)
All else is folly. Granted, the warmongers make it all very dangerous. But ‘tis folly all the same.
[Note: I wrote in “Preview of Gulf War III…” that this smacks of Trump wagging the dog to detract from the just cause Democrats have to impeach him. But Americans should beware that they have far more to fear from Trump’s norm-busting presidency than from North Korea, Iran, or even Russia.]
Related commentaries:
Gulf War III…
Iran…
fire and fury I…
Fire and fury II…
Trump-Kim summit…
Russia in Syria…
Yemen…
Impeachment…