I have written repeatedly that Hell will freeze over before the Palestinians and Israelis resolve all of the issues that are forestalling Palestinian statehood.
Here, for example, is the utter cynicism I expressed when President Obama began aping former President Bush by making patently fatuous pronouncements in this respect:
Given this Bush precedent, not to mention the 60-year futility of Mideast peace initiatives, you’d think Obama would be loath to make a similar declaration about brokering a peace deal within a year.
(Obama Aping Bush on Mideast peace too, The iPINIONS Journal, September 7, 2010)
Therefore, I am sympathetic to the dramatic, fed-up step Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas is threatening to take this week of applying directly to the United Nations for the Palestinian Territories to be granted statehood. I just think his timing sucks. Not to mention all the talk (on both sides) about this step precipitating all-out war between these two perennially factious parties….
The issues involved are well known to anyone who has had the slightest interest in the plight of the Palestinians over the years. This is true especially of the utterly feckless role every U.S. president has played as “honest broker” in negotiations between the Palestinians and Israelis.
Indeed, the intractable nature of these issues is why nothing Obama said in his address at the UN today (as brilliant, compelling and unassailable a defense of continued negotiations as it was), and nothing Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will say in theirs on Friday, will do anything to advance the cause of peace between them.
Therefore, I shall suffice to note a few ironies that attend this seminal occasion and end with some observations that belie criticisms of Obama for causing this diplomatic mess.
Ironies
It is ironic that, on the one hand, his Israeli critics (and their Republican enablers) are painting Obama as a Muslim appeaser who is naïvely and ill-advisedly pursuing common cause with those who want to see Israel wiped off the map; while on the other, his Palestinians critics (and their Democratic enablers) are painting him as a Jewish appeaser who, like all other U.S. presidents, is just paying lip service to their right of self-determination while supporting every Israeli effort to keep them under occupation.
It is ironic that the Palestinians could have given the finger to any American president over the past 60 years by taking their claim for statehood to the United Nations – just as the Jews did in 1948. Yet they have decided to give it to Obama – who is clearly the most sympathetic to their cause of any president in U.S. history.
It is ironic that Obama – who has predicated his foreign policy on the primacy of international institutions – is now entreating the Palestinians to eschew the UN in favor of continuing their 60-year kabuki dance with the Israelis.
Even more so that Obama is threatening to stand on the wrong side of history by becoming the president who vetoed the Palestinians’ application if they ignore his entreaties.
Observations
Obama’s critics (namely, Republicans and right-wing Jews) insist that had he not so naïvely and ill-advisedly raised expectations for a peace settlement Abbas would not be taking this unilateral action. However, nothing demonstrates how Obama-centric (or racially motivated) their criticisms are quite like the fact that former President George W. Bush – whom they hail to this day as the best friend Israel has ever had in the White House – raised expectations in much the same way.
Here is how I put criticisms in this respect into perspective a few years ago:
It is generally accepted that U.S. presidential candidates make promises they know they cannot keep. But it smacks of unconscionable and irresponsible pandering for a U.S. president to do so. Yet that is precisely what President George W. Bush did yesterday when he promised to broker peace between the Israelis and Palestinians:
‘I believe there’s going to be a signed peace treaty by the time I leave office . . . I’m on a timetable . . . I’ve got 12 months.’
(President Bush’s peace in his time pipe dream, The iPINIONS Journal, January 11, 2008)
Again, one wonders why Abbas did not petition the UN after Bush (or even Bill Clinton) failed to deliver on his promise of peace in his time and, moreover, why the Republicans and right-wing Jews now criticizing Obama did not criticize Bush for being naïve and ill-advised.
That said, whatever recognition the Palestinians get this week, I suspect it is going to fall far short of statehood – given all of the conditions that are bound to be attached to any UN resolution in their favor.
Meanwhile, narrow-minded supporters of Israel are urging Obama to threaten to withdraw billions in funding – not just for the Palestinian Authority, but also for the UN itself – if Abbas goes ahead with his application for (unconditional) statehood.
But they seem oblivious to the fact that China would be all too happy to replace the U.S. as the superpower patron in both respects – with all of the regional and international influence that would entail.
In point of fact, I have written many commentaries expressing grave concerns over the number of countries around the world that are weaning themselves off U.S. aid – with all of its conditions about democracy and human rights attached – in favor of lapping up Chinese aid – that is invariably devoid of such conditions.
This means that votes in the UN General Assembly will increasingly reflect China’s interests and values more than those of the U.S. Think about that for a minute…. More to the point, though, this is why the Palestinians may not fear the loss of U.S. aid as much as Obama’s nincompoop critics think.
In addition, anger at the U.S. within the Arab World over its seemingly unconditional support for the Israelis – at the expense of the Palestinians – is such that countries like Saudi Arabia have already pledged hundreds of millions to help wean the Palestinians off U.S. financial aid. And, perhaps even more troubling, fallout between Israel and its erstwhile friend Turkey (the first Muslim country to recognize it in 1949) over an Israeli raid on a “Gaza Freedom Flotilla” has Turkey now competing with Iran to isolate Israel in the Muslim World.
Therefore, withdrawing support would only amount to a diplomatic cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face. Not to mention that the Republicans who are urging Obama to cut off the few billions the U.S. commits to pursue peace in this respect are the very ones who are urging him to continue committing hundreds of billions to prosecute wars. Or that the Israelis themselves are on record stating that withdrawing this support would compromise Israel’s security because the Palestinian security forces would no longer have any incentive to prevent incursions into Israel by would-be terrorists.
Finally, even if the UN Security Council were to grant the Palestinians full statehood, or if the General Assembly were to grant them the less provocative “enhanced observer status”, this would prove a symbolic victory at best. Because it would do nothing to settle the territorial, security, immigration (Palestinian right of return) and other issues on the ground that have bedeviled peace negotiations for decades.
As frustrating a prospect as it clearly is, only direct negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis will bring about a Palestinian state and lasting peace in the Middle East. And it was shrewd of Obama to cite the precedent set by the negotiated settlements that led to the new state of South Sudan and peace in Northern Ireland.
Accordingly, it behooves die-hard supporters on both sides to heed his admonition that:
There is no short cut to the end of a conflict which has endured for decades… Peace is hard [and] will not come through statements and resolutions at the UN – if it were easy, it would have happened by now… Peace depends upon compromise among people who must live together long after our speeches are over, and our votes have been counted. That is the path to a Palestinian state.
(Obama UN Address, Associated Press, September 21, 2011)
Hear, hear.
NOTE: Despite all of the palaver about Obama throwing the Israelis under the bus, or about Jews turning on him, polls consistently show that the vast majority of Jews – not only in America, but also in Israel – support his efforts as well as the pragmatic approach he is taking to broker peace in the Middle East.
Related commentaries:
Obama aping Bush…
Bush peace in his time…
* This commentary was published originally yesterday, Wednesday, at 11:04