Russia Poised to Invade but Ukraine Insists There's No Panic... -The iPINIONS Journal

Only a cold-hearted, genocidal maniac (like Chinese President Xi Jinping) could fail to sympathize with the predicament of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, let alone with the looming fate of the Ukrainian people.

On the other hand, I suspect I sympathize with both as much as anyone not born in Ukraine possibly could. And I can cite commentaries attesting to this that date all the way back to 2005, most notably “Ukraine’s New Democratic President, Viktor Yushchenko,” April 7, 2005, and “Update on My Favorite Ex-Communists: the Ukrainians,” September 24, 2008.

Granted, you’d be forgiven for thinking I had a funny way of expressing my sympathy when I hailed Zelensky’s election in “If America Can Elect a Reality-TV Star as President, Surely Ukraine Can Elect a Popular Comedian,” April 23, 2019, as follows:

Donald Trump proved that any buffoon can get elected leader of any country. Therefore, if you’re still looking for the results of democratic elections to make normative sense, the joke’s on you. This is why, even though laughable, the results of Sunday’s presidential election in Ukraine evoked more affirmation than consternation.

Except I had in mind the literary device that often has the jokester speaking truth to power in ways no one else could or would. In this case, of course, that power is Russian President Vladimir Putin. And nothing has defined Zelensky’s antic presidency quite like his irreverent jibes about Ukrainian independence from mother Russia.

In fact, he may have unwittingly provoked wannabe-czar Putin to the point of such exasperation that he feels he must invade Ukraine to defend Russian pride. But nothing betrays the emasculation he feels quite like the way he threatened to rape Ukraine more than vowed to defend Russia:

The incumbent president recently stated that he does not like a single point of these Minsk agreements [because they cede too much control over rebel Ukrainian territories to Russia]. ‘Like it or don’t like it, it’s your duty, my beauty.’

(CNN, February 8, 2022)

In other words, this was Putin crudely paraphrasing the famous advice Lady Hollingdon reportedly gave women for surviving loveless marriages in the early 20th century, namely to “lie back and think of England.”

But, the jokester that he is, Zelensky seems hell-bent on taunting Putin. Only that explains him effectively saying that, no matter how much he bares and pounds his chest, this Russian bear is all talk and no action. Specifically, despite President Biden leading a chorus of world leaders warning about Russia’s “imminent” invasion of Ukraine, Zelensky keeps insisting they are all just stirring up panic.

You’d think images of Ukrainians of all ages, including grizzled and bedraggled grandmothers, going through civilian combat training – complete with wooden guns – would cause Zelensky to fully apprehend the dire nature of his predicament. Instead, it merely moved him to announce the date of his country’s impending doom – with what many would deem delusional valor – on social media as follows:

We are told that Feb. 16 will be the day of the attack. We will make it the Day of Unity. The relevant decree has already been signed. On this day, we will hang national flags, wear blue and yellow ribbons and show the world our unity.

(NBC, February 14, 2022)

By the way, this was right after he published a social media valentine to his wife. More to the mocking point, though, he’s taunting Russians by telling them Ukrainians will greet them the way Americans infamously thought Iraqis were going to greet them when they invaded in 2003.

But who can blame Zelensky for mocking Putin’s threat of war with a holiday decree. After all, Putin is a former KGB man who is reputed to be such a great military strategist that he plays chess while others play checkers. Yet this former comedian has him boxed into a geopolitical standoff that could see Putin thoroughly humiliated or trigger World War III. I mean, this is like chess grandmaster Magnus Carlsen being checkmated by comedian Ricky Gervais…

But talk about bedeviling! Zelensky’s social media post means Putin can no longer launch his blitzkrieg of Ukraine on Feb. 16 if he was in fact planning to. Because this would be like a bona-fide chess master contorting his face as he ponders his next move for checkmate, a security guard shouting what that move should be, the chess master making it, and, voila, checkmate!

Clearly an egomaniacal macho man like Putin cannot abide being upstaged like this. Never mind that more reputable US and British intelligence services have been warning and preparing for weeks for an attack on or close to this date.

But there’s another reason Putin has just cause to be getting cold feet. All Western countries seem determined to impose unprecedented sanctions on him and the oligarchs in his inner circle if he invades. Of course, Putin couldn’t care less. Because, unlike most oligarchs, he rarely travels and has “de-offshorized” most of his billions.

But many oligarchs still have most of their ill-gotten billions stashed in Western banks and invested in Western properties.

Sanctions on Kremlin associates have dented the fortunes of Russian elites: oligarch Oleg Deripaska sued the U.S. government in 2019 after he and his companies were sanctioned for allegedly furthering Russia’s ‘malign activity’ around the world.

According to Deripaska’s lawsuit, the aluminum magnate saw his net worth shrink by more than $7.5 billion, or 81 percent. The sanctions on his companies were lifted, but he is still fighting the ones placed on him personally.

(The Washington Post, February 2, 2022)

Biden and all Western leaders are threatening “the mother of all sanctions” on all Russian oligarchs similarly situated. If so, those oligarchs will likely blame Putin for their “Siberian” fate. In which case he should beware the Ides of March…

Meanwhile, you’ve probably heard everyone from pundits to presidents bemoaning the obvious, namely that they are unable to read Putin’s mind to know whether or not he plans to invade and, if so, when. But I’ve been among far too few commentators saying from the outset that, instead of trying to read his mind, Western leaders should be calling his bluff. Because, like all bullies, if you stand up to Putin, he will back down.

Here, for example, is what I wrote in the comments section at The Guardian to a report on Russia amassing troops at the Ukraine border on November 13:

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Instead of fretting about Russia’s intentions, NATO should be making a show of funneling military arms into Ukraine. That will check(mate) Putin. Not least because every Russian soldier on the frontlines will begin trembling at the thought of crossing, knowing it would amount to little more than a suicide mission. In which case, of course, the only winners will be the arms merchants behind the military industrial complex Eisenhower famously warned about. But hey, the whole Cold War was premised on this kind of MAD standoff.

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In fact I reiterated that Putin does not have the balls to invade most recently in “Russian Chess Grandmaster Kasparov Ridicules Washington on Putin’s Intent re Ukraine,” January 19, 2022.

But the day of reckoning is drawing nigh. And the real question is not whether or not Putin will invade. It is whether or not NATO and allied countries have funneled enough arms into Ukraine and (finally) threatened sanctions restrictive enough to call his bluff. I think they have. But we’ll see soon enough…