Rise and fall of Ukraine’s Yulia Tymoshenko -The iPINIONS Journal

Regular readers know that I have a soft spot for the Ukrainians. Unfortunately, ever since their triumphal Orange Revolution in 2005, they have done nothing but trample all over my hopes for the political development of their country.

The latest in this respect came on Tuesday when a judge sentenced former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to seven years in prison for abusing her powers while in office to sign a sweetheart oil deal with Russia. And to compound her woes, the state security service filed additional corruption charges against her only yesterday, claiming that she misappropriated over $400 million from the government’s budget to pay off a debt owed to Russia by an energy company she once ran.

(The irony is not lost on me that Ukrainian authorities are deploying the same tactics against Tymoshenko that their puppet masters in Russia deployed to imprison oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky, indefinitely, and confiscate his energy company without compensation.)

Tymoshenko denies everything of course, claiming that she’s being persecuted for her political beliefs by Ukraine’s unrepentant communist president, Viktor Yanukovych. Whatever the case, these new charges mean that she could end up spending the rest of her life in prison.

Mind you, such a fate would be entirely in keeping with the Joan-of-Arc persona she has cultivated over the years. And she will doubtless spin her imprisonment as martyrdom for the noble cause of Ukrainian democracy, which she and her fellow Orange Revolutionaries were mandated to usher in six years ago.

Never mind that all of her former political partners would probably describe her as more of a cross between Mata Hari and a Black Widow. And that her imprisonment is her just deserts.

I have written many commentaries over the years on the political machinations that led inexorably to this week’s developments. Here are some telling excerpts:

On her falling out with political soul mate Viktor Yushchenko – who led Ukraine’s Orange Revolution which wrested power from Yanukovych, temporarily. This falling out led to early elections and gave Yanukovych hope that he could return to power:

Yushchenko and Tymoshenko are considering locking arms again if only to foil Yanukovych’s return. Only this time, Tymoshenko, the woman Yushchenko appointed as Prime Minister, is insisting that she be on top if they do it again. (Perhaps Yushchenko will just lay back and take it like a man….)

(Ukraine’s democracy flounders…, The iPINIONS Journal, March 28, 2006)

On the political stalemate that defined the Orange Revolutionaries’ attempts to govern:

Because Yushchenko and Tymoshenko were unable to outmaneuver the communists, democratically, Yushchenko invoked his presidential prerogative to refuse to endorse Yanukovych as prime minister. Thus, since last March, Ukraine has been without a government.

And, just last Thursday, Tymoshenko – betraying who really wears the pants in her political marriage with Yushchenko – revealed that it was her Machiavellian plan to prolong this impasse. She calculated that if she could prevent Yanukovych from meeting today’s constitutional deadline to form a government, then Yushchenko could exercise his power as president to dissolve parliament and call for Ukraine’s third general election in 18 months.

Nonetheless, truth be told, Tymoshenko made it plain that if Yushchenko had endorsed Yanukovych as prime minister that SHE would have considered it ‘…a betrayal of Ukraine’s national interest!’

(Update on my favorite ex-communists: the Ukrainians I, The iPINIONS Journal, July 25, 2006)

On the final split and three-strikes-and-you’re-out farce she and Yushchenko made of their attempts to govern Ukraine:

It was not surprising, therefore, that Yushchenko’s most decisive act as president was his sacking of Yulia Tymoshenko – the charismatic woman he appointed prime minister and who, to his understandable envy, many Ukrainians think personifies the spirit of the Orange Revolution.

Unfortunately, this only deepened disaffection with his leadership and exacerbated the democratic growing pains of all Ukrainians. And to make matters worse, instead of going quietly, Tymoshenko led a mutiny against him, which caused their governing coalition to crumble in abject failure.

(Update on my favorite ex-communists: the Ukrainians II, The iPINIONS Journal, October 2, 2007)

On her ultimate betrayal of Yushchenko by getting in bed with Yanukovych:

This third divorce was caused by far more than persistent irreconcilable differences between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko.

Because it was triggered by Tymoshenko’s refusal to stand by Yushchenko when he went out on a limb in June to support another ex-communist, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, in his failed attempt to oust Russian forces from his country.

Yushchenko claims that Tymoshenko not only betrayed him (and Ukraine’s Orange Revolution), but was actually plotting ‘a political and constitutional coup d’état’ by joining Yanukovych, the leader of Ukraine’s pro-Russian party, in accusing Georgia’s democratic forces of provoking the Russian invasion.

(Update on my favorite ex-communists: the Ukrainians III, The iPINIONS Journal, September 24, 2008)

On the inevitable breakdown of her shotgun marriage with Yanukovych:

It has been little more than a year, but this latest update only brings more of the same. Because, after joining forces to utterly frustrate Yushchenko’s presidency, Tymoshenko and Yanukovych began plotting against each other immediately to replace him.

This led to new presidential elections last month, which resulted in Yanukovych defeating Tymoshenko. Yet, true to form, this latest change has only ushered in a new term of political chaos and dysfunction.

In this case, just as she defied Yushchenko, Tymoshenko defied Yanukovych’s demands for her to resign as prime minister so that he could appoint someone whose sole ambition was not to take his job. Her defiance led to an extraordinary vote of no-confidence in parliament yesterday, which will now compel Tymoshenko and her cabinet to resign.

(Alas, most Ukrainians believe in constant change, if not chaos, The iPINIONS Journal, March 4, 2010)

Clearly, when all is said and done, Tymoshenko is learning the hard way that the difference between a Democratic president like Yushchenko and a Communist one like Yanukovych is that the former just fires public servants who refuse to carry out his political agenda; the latter throws them in prison.

Frankly, and I take some historic license here, Tymoshenko leaving Yushchenko for Yanukovych and ending up in prison is rather like Anne Boleyn leaving her faithful fiancé for King Henry VIII and ending up with her head chopped off. A tragic fate in both cases to be sure; but neither evokes much sympathy.