Regional powder kegs: Middle East v. Far East

Perhaps Taiwan and China were simply jealous that the world seemed obsessed with Iran and Iraq. But last week, they launched a few political salvos into the international arena to remind anxious and fickle westerners that the Far East, not the Middle East, is where the action is.

And, sure enough, these fighting cousins commanded the world’s attention, if only temporarily, when Taiwan President Chen Shai-bian announced that his country’s National Unification Council and its guidelines for the eventual re-unification of Taiwan and China would “cease to function.”

China immediately declared Chen’s announcement an “open provocation [and a] dangerous step towards independence.” China then warned the United States to avert its daring gaze from Iran long enough to “take concrete measures to oppose Taiwan Independence forces.”

The U.S. promptly obliged by calling on Taiwan to “unambiguously affirm that…cease to function…did not mean that the National Unification Council had been completely abolished.” Er, come again. Clearly, if that’s all it takes to keep the red dragon’s flames from crossing the Taiwan Straits, then Chen should hasten to declare that:

Em, er, what I meant to say was that even though Taiwan shall continue the long march towards its destiny, our National Unification Council will never be abolished.

Alas, such is the nature of the kabuki dance amongst the major geopolitical players in the Far East. And, let us not forget that Japan taps Taiwan on the shoulder for its turn to dance with China and the U.S. every time its prime minister makes his ceremonial visit to the Yasukuni Shrine to Japanese war dead. Because China believes that many of these revered soldiers were no better than Nazis for committing unspeakable atrocities against Chinese civilians during World War II. And, like Chen’s provocative announcement, these shrine visits always trigger a similar dance between the U.S. and China to restore calm to the region.

In this case though, it’s worth recalling, that:

“The U.S., which has pledged Taiwan to defend itself, has long opposed any unilateral change in the long stand-off between China and Taiwan. The island has been self-ruled since the defeated nationalist leader Chaing Kai-Shek fled there in 1949. But China, which regards it as a province, has vowed to prevent formal independence, by force if necessary.”

Despite the heated rhetoric, however, I have no doubt that Taiwan, China and the U.S. will continue this dance for another 50 years; or until China’s booming economy and military build-up allow it to assume the world super-power position defaulted by the Soviet Union. At which time, I also have no doubt, China will assert its dominion over Taiwan with impunity just as the Soviets asserted dominion over Hungary in 1956.

NOTE: Click here to read the article I wrote almost a year ago detailing the choreographed steps these nation-states are now taking in the Far East.