Anyone who votes ‘No’ is voting for George W. Bush. Our true enemy is the US empire, and on Sunday, December 2, we’re going to give another knockout to Bush. [Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Saturday, December 1]
Editorials from around the world were dripping with schadenfreude yesterday as they heralded the “first ever electoral defeat” for Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. But those editorials merely reflected the seemingly-universal view that the rejection of his little red book of constitutional reforms was not only devoutly to be wished, but also wholly warranted. Nevertheless, Chávez may yet have the last laugh.
Just weeks ago, however, those opposed to his reform agenda, including Church leaders, business leaders, media organizations, human rights groups, student activists, Chávez’s ex-wife, Marisabel Rodríguez, and former Gen Raúl Isaías Baduel, who was Chávez’s defense minister until he became a conscientious objector, were all lamenting the consensus opinion that Chávez would enjoy a Putin-style mandate after Sunday’s historic vote.
In fact, news reports were replete with stories about Venezuelans who were planning to leave the country rather than live under a constitution that vests in Chávez absolute dictatorial powers, including the right to nationalize private property, curtail civil liberties, quash the freedom of the press, appropriate Venezuela’s oil revenues to fund his radical socialist agenda and, above all, to be president for life.
Yet, on the eve of the referendum there was a palpable sense that a critical mass of Venezuelans, international reporters and, I suspect, even Chávez himself were finally beginning to appreciate what I’ve been arguing for some time now; namely, that despite his posturing, Hugo Chávez is no Fidel Castro! In fact, here’s what I wrote almost a year ago today in an article hailing his landslide re-election as president:
Henceforth I shall refrain from calling Chávez a ‘Castro wannabe’. After all…having won two democratic elections, Chávez has earned the right to be distinguished – as a benign demagogue, from Castro – who was never anything but a ruthless dictator for whom democratic elections [and referenda] were like the plague. [“Viva Chávez!” Caribbean Net News, 8 December 2006]
Accordingly, even though Chávez lost Sunday’s vote in a surprising upset (51% to 49%), this defeat may have been the best thing that could have happened to him. Because this referendum and (especially) its result make liars out of all who have insisted that Chávez is nothing but a tin-pot dictator.
Moreover, his gracious acceptance of “the will of the Venezuelan people” stands in stark contrast to the way George W. Bush litigated his way to the US presidency in 2000:
I understand and accept that the proposal I made was quite profound and intense….There’s no way to make up the deficit…Therefore, it is best to recognize this immediately and congratulate them….Venezuelan democracy is maturing….From this moment on, let’s be calm….There is no dictatorship here…. [Chávez conceding defeat in a televised address early on Monday morning]
But nothing demonstrates Chávez’s (occasionally-thuggish) regard for the democratic process quite like the fact that he did not act like a dictator (e.g., like Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf) by ordering his military to assault the tens of thousands of Venezuelans who took to the street last week to protest against his reforms.
That said, it would be reading far too much into this defeat to suggest that Chávez has been cowered. Because I have no doubt that he will continue to flex the formidable powers he retains under the existing constitution to rule Venezuela like, well, a de facto dictator.
And with another five years left on his term in office, it would be naïve to assume that this is the last we’ve heard of Chávez ’s efforts to codify his socialist ideology and win popular support for his perennial presidency. After all, even though he is prohibited from resubmitting his reforms for a second vote, Chávez retains:
…the power to pass any law unilaterally, until August 2008, that does not explicitly contradict the current constitution.
Therefore, I would not bet against his using the same rubber-stamp legislature, which voted unanimously to grant him this power, to implement his entire reform agenda – no matter how much this maneuver defies even his implied constitutional powers.
Meanwhile, if Bush thought he was a pain in the ass before, a humiliated Chávez – who scapegoats America for all of his woes and insecurities in ways that Castro could never have even imagined – may now be hell-bent on creating mischief for him.
For example, Chávez might emulate Russian President Vladimir Putin after all by “turning off” the gas he supplies to the US (and at the height of winter to maximize the message of his discontent).
So stay tuned. It won’t be long before Chavez gets his swagger back….
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Amadeo says
Firstly, his only democratically attained ascent to office took place in 1998. Since then, with the help of imported computer experts and his own interest in the manufacturing and programming of the voting machines, it’s all been fraudulent. He cannot turn off the valve through which oil flows to the US. There is no place to store it and only five refineries on the Gulf can handle this crude. Then, his “gracious acceptance” of defeat took place when the military refused to go along with his proposed electoral mischief. Try to document your statements in order not to misguide the readers.
ALH ipinions says
I appreciate your point of view Amadeo.
However, if only one of his elections was legitimate, then, some might argue, this is at least one thing Chavez has in common with his nemesis George W Bush.
As for his threat to “turn off the spigot” on the 10 percent of its foreign oil the US imports from Venezuela, you’re the only person I know who appears to have taken Chavez literally. But, for your edification, just as Putin was able to cut off his gas supply to the Ukraine, I have no doubt that Chavez can find a way to do the same. And I suspect that Putin would be all too happy to provide the technical assistance necessary to do so, and that the Chinese would be quite willing and able to buy up the US’s share of his gas….
Ray says
Granted, a week has passed since the referendum in Venezuela and Mr. Chavez’s painful acceptance at 01:30 a.m.
Would you care to comment on his repeated statement on wednesday about the “shitty victory”? Do you expect to update the scenario, especially since he has declared his intention to ignore the results and continue on his way to a dictatorship? (Bloomberg Channel, today).