Okay, so North Korea has nukes…we think. Now what?!

As a general proposition, possessing nuclear weapons is sheer lunacy, which makes the United States and Russia the biggest lunatic nations in the history of mankind. Beyond this, trying to control which countries possess nuclear weapons under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is as inherently unfair as it is patently unenforceable.

After all, every sovereign nation has as much right to develop these weapons as the United States, Russia, China and others – as I argued in this article here – dated July 14, 2005 – entitled New Iranian Pres: “We shall have nukes!” vs Pres Bush: “Over my dead body! Indeed, it is instructive that India, Pakistan and Israel refused to even sign the NPT.

Moreover, the right to develop nuclear weapons should be forfeited only if a country threatens to use them against another without (proportionate) provocation. In fact, I proposed such a forfeiture in this article here – dated October 27, 2005 – entitled Iran declares final solution for peace in the Middle East. And I did so because Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threatened repeatedly to wipe Israel off the map. (See also this article here – dated April 13, 2005 – entitled Time to put up or shut up about Iran’s nuclear program!)

Nonetheless, Article X actually allows any country to withdraw from the NPT, giving three months’ notice, if “extraordinary events have jeopardized its supreme interests” (e.g. like a certifiably insane dictator or Islamic jihadists in the neighborhood developing nukes). And, clearly, this Article makes ratifying the NPT, invariably under (political or economic) duress, litte more than a symbolic (and situational) act.

But enough about nuclear weapons according to my iPINIONS world order. Here, given the geopolitical realities we face, is what I think about the North Korean situation:

If international media reports are correct, North Korea defied the world on Sunday evening by setting off a nuclear blast that registered around 4 on the Richter scale (or about one tenth as powerful as the bomb the U.S. dropped on Hiroshima). And, rather like a skunk crashing a party, this event marked its unwelcome induction into the world’s most exclusive club: the nuclear club of 8 countries with nuclear weapons (i.e. U.S., Russia, UK, China, France, Pakistan, India and, unconfirmed though generally accepted, Israel). But even if no one else considered it a cause for celebration, Mr Kim seemed perfectly content to drink to his own success….

However, as the quote above implies, I am less concerned about North Korea possessing nuclear weapons than about the world vowing to take “swift action” in response to its nuclear test, and then doing virtually nothing. Unfortunately, that is precisely what I predict will happen. Because, depite universal condemnation, it will soon emerge that what the U.S. considers an appropriate reaction will differ from what China considers apppropriate, which will differ from what South Korea considers appropriate, and so on, and so on….

Moreover, no matter what sanctions these countries impose – individually or collectively through the UN Security Council – North Korea will surely prove impervious to them. After all, it’s already the most sanctioned country on earth and Mr Kim has good reason to believe that, notwithstanding their condemnation, countries like China and Russia will block attempts by the U.S. to make life any more onerous than it already is for his long-suffering people.

Therefore, the question for North Korea’s non-nuclear neighbours is whether this is, in fact, an extraordinary event that has jeopardized their supreme national security interest, which requires them to go nuclear as well? But since South Korea seems fatally hopeful for a peaceful cooexistence with North Korea and China would not countenance a nuclear Taiwan, it may be that only Japan will feel sufficiently provoked and determined to go nuclear.

And, with the recent inauguration of hawkish Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, I suspect Japan will ultimately settle on this Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) reaction to North Korea’s nuclear threat; epecially given its lingering conflicts with North Korea’s primary enabler, China – as I detailed here.

Otherwise, all talk of sanctions will amount to nothing more than hollow rhetoric, which North Korea knows all too well. Meanwhile, no country could be more heartened by North Korea’s defiance than Iran. Because Mr Ahmadinejad is following the path blazoned by Mr Kim into the nuclear club. And this event gives him reasonable hope that it’s only a matter of time before Iran makes 10.

Nonetheless, in this article, here – dated September 21, 2005 – entitled Resolving the North Korean Menace, I advised U.S. President George W. Bush on how to deal with North Korea and other rougue states that possess nuclear weapons. And, that advice, part of which follows, is as sound today as i
t was back then:

Reinstate America’s moratorium on talks with Kim; continue providing grains to help him feed his people; let Kim fiddle with whatever nuclear toys he may (or may not) have – but quarantine him politically and militarily to monitor and control movement of material and persons across his borders; and telegraph one of his patented messages to Kim warning him that if he transgresses his borders or peddles his nuclear wares that America will consider it an act of war and shall respond with overwhelming force.

(Incidentally, Bush should cc the equally enigmatic Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who left no doubt during his debut at the 2005 United Nations World Summit last week that, like Kim, he will not be deterred from making his country a fully-fledged member of the nuclear club.)

Bush should then punctuate these sobering diplomatic measures by renouncing America’s policy of “no first use of nuclear weapons” as inconsistent with its war on terror. And to justify this renunciation, he should proffer that military experts have determined that [diplomacy and] conventional armed forces are inadequate to deter states that appear fixated on subjecting the U.S. (and the world) to nuclear blackmail. He should then have Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld hold one of his delightfully menacing Pentagon briefings on America’s:

Your move Mr Bush….

North Korea, Kim Jong IL, nuclear test