Kenya held another free and fair presidential election last week. But, with Monday’s announcement of the official results, the country is threatening to descend into violence.
That, of course, would be déjà vu all over again. Because the previous two elections, in 2012 and 2017, played out that way too.
I commented on the most recent fallout in “Another Free and Fair Election in Kenya Descends into Violence,” August 17, 2017. But so much for the third time being a charm…?
Africa’s beacon of democracy
Kenya has been hailed as the beacon of democracy in Africa. But, given the violence that has occasioned its democratic elections, it’s hardly surprising that South Sudan, Africa’s newest country, has been beset by similar violence since its founding in 2011. I bemoaned this fateful symmetry in “South Sudan Continues Descent into Heart of Darkness,” April 24, 2013.
The only consolation in Kenya this time is that the sore loser Raila Odinga is looking to judges to settle his quinquennial grievance in the courts. But, past being prologue, everyone fears it’s only a matter of time before he begins looking to supporters to settle it in the streets.
Kenyan presidential candidate Raila Odinga declared the results of the election ‘null and void’ and promised to challenge them in court, ignoring calls for him to concede to declared winner William Ruto. … His statement raises the specter of violence between his supporters and the winner’s, which has marred past elections.
(The Washington Post, August 16, 2022)
And that, despite the magnanimous winner William Ruto being officially declared the president-elect.
Last week’s election was largely peaceful. The electoral commission was widely praised for conducting a transparent process by posting on its website results from more than 46,000 polling stations and encouraging anyone to conduct their own tally.
(BBC News, August 16, 2022)
And so the fuse has been lit. It only remains to be seen if the Supreme Court can extinguish Odinga’s inflammatory hopes; or give this 77-year-old, 5-time loser just cause to think the only way he will ever win the presidency is in the streets, not at the ballot box.
Meanwhile, outgoing president Uhuru Kenyatta did little to quell tribal hostilities when he endorsed Odinga instead of his own deputy Ruto.
The Kikuya Kenyatta, of the Bantu group, choosing the Luo Odinga over the Kalenjin Ruto, both of the Nilotes group, is fraught with peril in preternaturally tribal Kenya. But, to get only a sense of the restiveness afoot, imagine the hostilities that would prevail even in this superficially tribal country if Obama had endorsed Trump over his own VP Biden in the 2020 presidential election…
Violence becoming a feature not a bug
Of course, street violence has always been an oxymoronic feature of democratic elections in Africa. After all, here is what I wrote in this regard over a decade ago in “Africa’s Democratic Despots Now Includes Gbagbo of Ivory Coast,” December 15, 2010:
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Gbagbo was just the latest African leader who refused to cede power after losing a free and fair presidential election in November to challenger Alassane Ouattara. More to the point, despite ultimatums from the UN, EU, AU, and former colonial power France for him to step down or face military action, Gbagbo did exactly as I predicted: he unleashed still loyal military forces to defend his illegitimate regime.
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Not to mention that, thanks to former President Donald J. Trump, the United States has now given its imprimatur to losers of democratic elections refusing to accept the results. Indeed, the peaceful transfer of power used to be the hallmark of American democracy.
But the reputational damage his Jan. 6 insurrection caused is such that Trump now has more in common with leaders in sh*thole countries than he does with any of his predecessors in the United States.
Apropos of which, think again if you thought Trump’s notorious refusal to accept the outcome of the 2020 presidential election was just a bug. Because members of (his) Republican Party have so lost their way, they now pledge as an article of political faith to reject the results of any election … if they lose.
So much for the United States being the beacon of democracy in the world…