Whose next: Abdullah of Saudi Arabia? Abdullah of Jordan? Saleh of Yemen? … Gaddafi of Libya? The prospects make me positively giddy. When Obama spoke of HOPE and CHANGE during his presidential campaign these are not the transformations I anticipated; but I’ll take them.
Allah-u-akbar!
(Egypt on Fire, The iPINIONS Journal, January 31, 2011)
This quote makes clear my fervent hope that the democratic revolution that led to the fall of Ben Ali of Tunisia would turn out to be more of a regional contagion than an isolated case. And sure enough, since then, Mubarak of Egypt has fallen and the leaders of several other Mideast and North African countries are currently under siege.
I was also sensible enough to insist that only Allah knows how these protests will turn out in each case. Indeed, no leader seems more determined to cling to power by any means necessary than Gaddafi of Libya.
No doubt this is why his son and putative successor, Saif Al-Islam, commanded air time on state TV on Sunday to warn fellow Libyans of grave consequences if they persist in trying to emulate Arab revolutionaries in Tunisia and Egypt:
We are all aware that the region is undergoing an earthquake, or a storm – the storm of change, of democracy, and of liberation…
Libya is not Tunisia or Egypt. Libya is composed of clans and tribes. There are alliances. Libya does not have a civil society with political parties. No, Libya is composed of clans and tribes…
There will be civil war in Libya. We will return to the civil war of 1936. We will kill one another in the streets. Libya is not Tunisia or Egypt. Libya has oil, and that is what united the country…
Before it comes to this, and every Libyan has to bear arms in order to protect himself, and there is bloodshed, I say: Tomorrow, we will embark upon an historic national initiative. Within 48 hours… three days… one day… six hours… we will call for the convening of the General People’s Committee, with a clear agenda: the ratification of a group of laws which were already agreed upon – the press law, a law for civil society, and a new penal code…
Mu’ammar Al-Qadhafi is not Zine Al-Abidine or President Mubarak. He is not a traditional or classic president. He is a popular leader…
In any event, our morale is high. The leader Mu’ammar Al-Qadhafi is here in Tripoli, leading the campaign. We stand by him, and the armed forces stand by him. Tens of thousands of people are on their way to Tripoli. We will not sell Libya short. We will fight to our very last man, woman, and bullet. Under no circumstances will we leave our country…
Let Al-Jazeera TV, Al-Arabiya TV, and the BBC laugh at us. Let those bullies and those traitors, who live abroad, laugh at us, and say that we are destroying our country, but we will not leave it….
(Middle East Media Research Institute, February 21, 2011)
Saif has been widely criticized for the rambling and apocalyptic nature of his address; and rightly so. But there’s no gainsaying the truth of much of what he asserted. It is also worth bearing in mind that this was a man speaking effectively from a bunker under siege and for whom it was far more important to appear menacing to Libyan protesters than statesmanlike to Westerner observers.
Indeed, Gaddafi may yet distinguish himself from these two fallen dictators by actually prevailing upon his military to open fire on fellow Libyans.
For reports are that, even though members of his diplomatic core in places like London and Washington have switched allegiances (like rats abandoning a sinking ship), members of his military are opening fire on protesters all over the country.
In fact the crackdown is reportedly so brutal that his ambassador to Washington justified his turning state’s evidence by claiming that he could not be party to the genocide that Gaddafi has allegedly ordered to protect his hide.
But, truth be told, I can’t blame him for going out with a bang. For his only other option would be to suffer the indignity of going out with a whimper only to have a successor regime hound not just him, but every member of his family for the billions that were expropriated during his 41-year reign.
Not to mention that, even more than Saddam Hussein, Gaddafi has always fancied himself the de facto leader of the Arab world; so for him to turn tail and run would be a humiliation too great to even contemplate….
Frankly, I’m sure Ben Ali and Mubarak would have put up more of a fight if they knew their assets would be immediately frozen and prosecutors would be demanding they stand trial for crimes against humanity.
In any event, all I can say is that democratic revolutions are not always as peaceful as those in Tunisia and Egypt. In fact they are often deadly like those in America and France demonstrated centuries ago.
I wish the brave Libyan freedom fighters well. They have clearly broken that psychological barrier of fear that fuels revolutions.
But Allah help them if they are looking to the UN or even the U.S. to save them from Gaddafi’s genocidal wrath. Because it is patently clear that no foreign country is going to lift a finger to stop him. And political and economic sanctions won’t do a damn thing for democratic freedom fighters who have already been slaughtered.
Related commentaries:
Protests spread across the Middle East
British exposed as hypocrites on Lockerbie Bomber