Democratic Senator John Kerry, neo-con Republicans, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and the Arab League are all among the strange bedfellows calling for the imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya. They claim that this will give democratic forces a fighting chance against forces loyal to Dictator Muammar Gaddafi – who are now mounting a blitzkrieg counteroffensive to regain control of the country.
But everybody knows that unless the U.S. takes the lead in assembling a coalition of the willing to do so, a no-fly zone will never happen.
And, despite proclaiming that Gaddafi must go, President Obama can be forgiven for being gun shy about doing anything that might plunge America into yet another entanglement in an Arab country.
In fact, he’s now trying desperately to extricate his country from the military and political quagmire Afghanistan and Iraq have become. And U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has already thrown cold water on this prospect by noting that it would be tantamount to a declaration of war against Libya.
Meanwhile, everybody also knows that China and Russia will veto any UN resolution to sanction a no-fly zone.
This is why all of the talk about imposing one is just hot air. What I find incredulous, however, is that nobody is bothering to point out the precedential flaw inherent in this course of action.
After all, the no-fly zone the U.S., France, and the UK enforced over Iraq from 1991-2003 did nothing to prevent Saddam Hussein from exercising dictatorial control. Instead, it took a full-scale invasion (based on trumped-up charges that he not only possessed but was planning to use WMDs) to finally get rid of him. And look how well that turned out….
I’m on record arguing that it is hypocritical on many levels for Western countries to be trying to overthrow Gaddafi while kowtowing to dictators in China and Saudi Arabia. But it was clear to me from the outset that the most plausible and effective way to hasten his demise would be to train and arm the rebels.
This is still the case. But Gaddafi’s forces have beaten them back so decisively (while Western leaders did nothing but vent self-righteous indignation) that I fear it might be impossible now for the rebels to regain their revolutionary zeal.
Alas, like the Mullahs and Ahmadinejad in Iran, Gaddafi and his sons in Libya appear to have weathered the democratic storm blowing over the Middle East.
NOTE: It speaks volumes about the futility and fecklessness of the Arab League and African Union that they have to turn to Westerners (their former colonial masters) to discipline one of their own….
Related commentaries:
Sanctioning Libya but not China
Gaddafi vows to fight to the death