New Sanctions on Iran: Naïve or Shrewd?

President Obama expended a great deal of political capital over the past five months trying to enlist countries like China and Russia in his coalition of the willing to impose new sanctions on Iran.  He finally succeeded last week when the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1929.

This latest round of sanctions is aimed at undermining Iran’s ability to use its oil wealth to finance its nuclear program. Never mind that it follows the abject failure of three previous rounds of sanctions, which were aimed at blocking trade in any nuclear materials with Iran,  banning its export of arms, and freezing the assets of key individuals involved in its nuclear program.

Indeed, critics argue that Obama and his European cohorts are naïve if they think these sanctions will have any effect on Iran’s quest to become a bona fide nuclear power.  And the open and notorious way North Korea defied similar sanctions while continuing to build its nuclear weapons stands as a persuasive precedent in this respect.

The critical difference, of course, is that that hermit kingdom did not pose the existential threat Iran does to America’s key ally, Israel. This is why I think Obama is just being shrewd by establishing a record of Iran’s defiance to show why going to war became a categorical imperative … and a just cause (once the “shock and awe” begins). And he’s laying the political foundation for this by getting China and Russia on record imposing sanctions as the last ditch effort to get Iran to “choose a wiser course.”

We know that the Iranian government will not change its behavior overnight, but today’s vote demonstrates the growing costs that will come with Iranian intransigence… Actions do have consequences, and today the Iranian government will face some of those consequences.

(Obama marking the passage UN resolution 1929, London Guardian, June 9, 2010)

Meanwhile, all indications are that Iran will never allow unfettered UN inspections of its nuclear facilities. And without these inspections, there’s no way the international community can be sure that Iran is building its nuclear program for peaceful purposes, and not to have the means to “wipe Israel off the map” – as Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has repeatedly threatened.

Apropos of this, Ahmadinejad reacted to the passage of these new sanctions in characteristic fashion by insisting that:

[UN] resolutions were not worth a dime and deserved to be thrown in the dust bin. (France24, June 10, 2010)

Game on….

But God help us if the U.S., Israel, or a coalition of the willing attacks and Iran’s nuclear program turns out to be no more threatening than the WMDs that were never found in Iraq.  God help us too, though, if nobody attacks and Iran’s nuclear program turns out to have the holocaust capacity we all fear….

And Hamlet thought he had a dilemma?  Hell, having to decide when, or whether, to act in these circumstances could turn any thinking president into a dithering fool….

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