Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia leaves Nagorno-Karabakh high and dry
America assumed responsibility for the welfare and security of pro-Western Afghans. That’s why it shocked the world when America suddenly fled Afghanistan. Because it left Afghans to the jihadi mercies of the Taliban. That abandonment was as unconscionable as it was shameful.
Russia assumed responsibility for the ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh. But it, too, suddenly fled this week.
A military offensive by Azerbaijan last week forced the self-declared government of Nagorno-Karabakh, which Armenians call Artsakh, to capitulate and agree to dismantle its armed forces. Warnings by local authorities that the advancing Azerbaijani forces would engage in “ethnic cleansing” have terrified residents and spurred thousands of people to evacuate to Armenia.
Russia last week again claimed to broker a cease-fire, but events in recent days demonstrated a stunning failure by Moscow to fulfill its peacekeeping role. Moscow was unable to prevent the military operation by Azerbaijan, to protect the Armenians living in the region or to enforce the terms of the 2020 cease-fire.
(The Washington Post, September 26, 2023)
This development is equally unconscionable and shameful. Yet nobody seems shocked. But I suspect that’s because Russia’s once-vaunted military is getting decimated in Ukraine.
Not to mention that it’s still reeling from the assassination of its most effective leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin. All of that makes it inconceivable that Russians could serve as peacekeepers anywhere.
Courting Western support might have cost Armenia
Pro-Western Afghans never courted support from anyone else, let alone the Taliban. That’s why they have just cause to regard America’s abandonment as a betrayal. By contrast, Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh openly courted Western support. So Russia may be forgiven for claiming the Armenians betrayed it.
After all, Russia deemed Ukraine courting support from the West an existential threat. That’s why it trumped up the pretext for the war that has Russia now losing soldiers like flies on battlefields all over Ukraine. So it’s arguable that Russia withdrew its security forces to make a petulant but deadly point: stray at your own peril.
Still, it’s notable that the US has led Western countries in condemning Turkey for denying the Armenian genocide. But realpolitik prevails. And any geopolitical development that weakens Russia’s putative sphere of influence strengthens the West’s. (No doubt Russia is thinking the influence it’s gaining across Africa more than compensates.)
So, Western countries are paying lip service to the unfolding humanitarian crisis ethnic Armenians are suffering. But they welcome the sight of Russia leaving Nagorno-Karabahk with its tail between its legs. And they’ll be keen to note how this resembles a defeated Soviet Union leaving Afghanistan. Remember that?
War crimes in Ukraine trump ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh
Western countries are actively engaged in documenting war crimes in Ukraine to conduct Nuremberg-style trials. They are reacting as if the world has not seen such war-time atrocities since World War II.
All crimes against humanity might be equal, but some are more “worthy of prosecution.” Africans know this all too well. Of course, there’s the notable exception of the genocide in Rwanda. But otherwise, tribal warfare and ethnic cleansing have raged across Africa for decades with nary a peep in the West. Other non-Europeans, like the Uyghurs in China and the Rohingyas in Myanmar, have suffered genocidal treatment in the proverbial wilderness, too.
Yet, just as Western countries championed prosecutions for war crimes committed in Kosovo, they are doing so with respect to Ukraine. But it has offered nothing more than economic sanctions and verbal condemnation for war crimes committed in Africa, China, and Myanmar. Alas, they seem bound to do nothing more with respect to war crimes committed in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Turkey’s new role a warning to ethnic Kurds
Turkey mentored Azerbaijan throughout its territorial conflict with ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. But that mentoring stemmed from an abiding interest in seeing Armenians pay for accusing Turks of committing genocide over 100 years ago. Talk about revenge being served cold.
But Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has more than one fish to fry in this context. And with Russia off the Caucasus chessboard, he has carte blanche to rewrite history.
Erdogan will undoubtedly propagate denial of the Armenian genocide with a zealousness that will make denial of the Jewish Holocaust seem naïve. But he’s also bound to use his regional superpower to warn the Kurds against pushing for independence, lest they suffer a fate similar to the ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The world is preoccupied with a civil war brewing in America and the genocidal war raging in Ukraine. And the cacophony of bellicose rhetoric and exploding missiles is drowning out Armenian cries for help.
Alas, most Westerners are too busy worrying about inflation. Others are too busy scrolling through social media feeds. That’s why so few seem to care. Even fewer seem to notice what’s happening in Nagorno-Karabakh.