The Egyptian military sparked dizzying expectations worldwide this morning when it announced that it was taking “steps to protect the nation [and to ensure that] the legitimate demands of the people are met.”
Those expectations were soon anchored when word got out that President Mubarak would be addressing the nation later this evening. For everyone inferred that the only reason for his address would be to announce his belated resignation. In fact, so certain were they that this was forthcoming that hundreds of thousands of protesters began celebrating in Tahrir Square – even tweeting among themselves “mission accomplished.” (Evidently, the ironic and instructive Bush precedent was completely lost on them….)
Actually, no less a person than President Obama was so certain this would be the case that he gave an address of his own ahead of Mubarak’s (perhaps trying to claim credit for finally pushing this beleaguered leader into exile), in which he spoke triumphantly of watching history unfold in this “moment of transformation;” CIA Director Leon Panetta elaborated by adding that there was a strong likelihood that Mubarak would be announcing his resignation “later tonight.”
When Mubarak finally spoke, however, he sounded as if he were reading from the same defiant address he gave after protesters took to the streets two weeks ago.
He reiterated his determination to oversee the orderly transition from his dictatorship to democracy, delineating all of the steps he has already taken, including proposing constitutional amendments to ensure free and fair elections and impose term limits on all future presidents.
Most significantly, he reiterated his intent to remain in power until his term ends in September, making a mockery of universal expectations that he would be announcing his immediate resignation.
He even manifested the delusions and ability to deflect blame that have sustained him for 30 years when he cited foreign agents as the ones inciting the protests in a deliberate attempt to destroy all of the good he has done for Egypt. Indeed, one could be forgiven the impression that he was channeling Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in one of his patented diatribes blaming the United States and Israel for poisoning the minds of his people with utterly untenable notions about democratic freedoms.
Then, in a bit of condescension they must have found particularly galling, he said he wanted to speak to the protesters as a father to his sons and daughters. He proceeded to wax paternal about how proud he was of their actions – even coming across like putative opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei deftly co-opting their cause.
But, like a father, he made it clear that they were out of line telling him to resign and leave the country. He insisted that the historic concessions already made (namely, not standing for re-election, not nominating his son to succeed him, and transferring his presidential authorities to Vice-President Suleiman) are all he intends to make. He concluded by declaring once again that no foreign power or local saboteur would ever run him out of Egypt; for he fully intends to live and die on its soil.
Apropos of this latter point, the aphorism, past is prologue, comes to mind. Because it seems the only way they’ll get rid of Mubarak is for army soldiers to assassinate him the way they assassinated his predecessor Anwar Sadat in 1981.
Anyway, to say the protesters were dumbstruck would be an understatement. More to the point, despite all of their efforts, Egypt is facing the same combustible impasse it was facing two weeks ago: Mubarak is still firmly in charge; the army is still straddling the fence; and the protests show no signs of waning.
In fact, after greeting his address with unbridled rage, protesters left Tahrir Square tonight vowing that over 20 million will be taking to the streets all over the country tomorrow (as part of a national strike) all shouting their rallying cry for Mubarak to “leave, leave, leave!”
Then, adding insult to their disappointment, Suleiman disabused them of any expectation that he would serve as a genteel and trustworthy transitional figure when he followed Mubarak’s address with one of his own, in which he played the role of bad cop (or the Godfather) to Mubarak’s good cop (or the father figure). In short, he told them to shut up, go home, and get back to work!
Clearly, this does not bode well. And everybody, including Mubarak and Obama, seems to be looking to the military to resolve this crisis. But here is how I cautioned about placing oxymoronic hope in the military to usher in and sustain democracy to Egypt.
With all due respect to the protesters, the issue is not whether Mubarak will go, for he will. (The man is 82 and already looks half dead for Christ’s sake!) Rather, the issue is who will replace him. And it appears they have not given any thought whatsoever to this very critical question.
The devil the Egyptians know might prove far preferable to the devil they don’t. Just ask the Iranians who got rid of the Mubarak-like Shah in 1979 only to end up with the Ayatollah – whose Islamic revolution they’ve regretted (and have longed to overturn) ever since….
(“Army pledges no force against protesters,” The iPINIONS Journal, February 1, 2011)
Not to mention that the military top brass who kept Mubarak in power were themselves atop the pyramid scheme that fleeced the country of tens of billions during his reign. Which means that they clearly have a vested interest in making sure that a transition to democracy does not mean forfeiting any of their ill-gotten gains.
So stay tuned….
But in the meantime, I urge President Obama to stop issuing statements about what the United States wants to see happen in Egypt. For they not only make it plain how little influence the U.S. has on events unfolding there, but provide a misleading and potentially dangerous sense of support for the protesters as well.
Related commentaries:
Egypt on fire…
Army pledges no force…
* This commentary was originally published last night, Thursday, at 10:08.