That said, there is probably some truth to reports that the Iranians took this action to spite the UN Security Council because it was poised to enact more onerous sanctions against Iran. However, it is far more accurate to report that these dingy-roaming marines just happened to be sitting ducks. And all parties to the cold war being fought by proxy throughout the region between the U.S. and Iran appreciate that they presented a target of opportunity that the Iranians would have been foolish not to seize.
(In fact the BBC aired an interview last night with a top Iraqi general who conceded that he had no idea why the Brits were patrolling the “disputed waters” where they were “caught”….)
At any rate, I admonish you to ignore all of the bellicose rhetoric being exchanged between the UK and Iran; especially since it smacks of a patently-hollow threat for British PM Tony Blair to warn about taking “a different phase if diplomacy failed” to secure their release. Because the only thing that matters now is what leverage each side has in behind-the-scenes bartering for the release of its respective captives, which I suspect is already underway. But let’s be mindful that this could take days or weeks depending on how much Iran wants to make the British sweat.
Meanwhile, it is instructive to recall that Israel launched a costly war against Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy government in Southern Lebanon, to secure the release of one of its soldiers. Yet Hezbollah is still holding that soldier today – 8 months after capturing him – as a bargaining chip. It follows, therefore, that Iran is clearly sitting in the catbird seat in this standoff. Because everyone knows that it would be an even greater folly for the British to escalate this hostage crisis to a shooting war than it was for the Israelis to do so against Hezbollah.
In due course, pursuant to customary practice for settling disputes in the Middle East, the Iranians will release their British captives in exchange for the Iranians being held in Iraq. And this, notwithstanding that the Americans have accused them of providing money and logistical advice to Iraqi insurgents, and that they may number many more than 4 as widely reported (in fact, as many as 36). In the meantime, I hope the captured Brits can make themselves comfortable, because they may be staying awhile….
It’s worth noting, however, that this little tit for tat will have no bearing on the course of the Iraq war or escalating UN sanctions against Iran to get it to stop its nuclear program.
Likewise, I feel obliged to note that it’s naïve for President Bush to think that ordering battleships to the Persian Gulf will force Iran to retreat from its defiance in dealings with the British over this hostage crisis and with the United Nations over their nuclear program. In fact, I suspect it will only evoke derisive laughter in the Iranians who know full-well that – just as the British are making threats they can’t back up – the Americans are flexing military muscles they simply don’t have the balls to use against them ….
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