Blames Israel to avoid ISIS

Iran is notorious for using proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis to do its dirty work. It was so humiliated during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) that it has cowered from confrontation ever since. Only that explains this: 

ISIS has claimed responsibility for the deadliest attack in Iran since its 1979 Islamic Revolution, which has shaken the Islamic Republic and led to angry calls for vengeance. On Wednesday, at least 84 people were killed and 284 others injured in the Iranian city of Kerman after twin blasts near the burial site of slain military commander Qasem Soleimani. …

No one claimed responsibility for the attack for more than 24 hours, during which time Iranian officials were quick to blame Israel and said it will pay for it.

(CNN, January 4, 2024)

Iran’s rush to blame Israel betrayed its strategy. It relies on proxies, always on standby, to exact revenge. It would never dare attack Israel directly.

And Iran does not want open warfare with ISIS. After all, that would just inflame the Shia-Sunni schism that fueled the Iran-Iraq War and has defined Islam itself for over 1000 years.

The ongoing Sunni-Shia conflict 

There’s a dirty little secret playing out here: These bombings were just a continuation of the tit-for-tat Shia Iran and Sunnis ISIS engaged in for control of Iraq after the US ended its ill-fated war. And Iran knows it.

That said, this attack underscores Iran’s vulnerability to terrorist attacks. It also highlights Iran’s reluctance to retaliate against ISIS.

It’s one thing for Iran to launch limited strikes against US forces in Iraq in retaliation for the assassination of Soleimani. Because it knew the US would take it like a flea biting the butt of an elephant.  

It’s quite another for Iran to chase ISIS in hideouts all over the Middle East to avenge this attack. Because it knows that would lead to the kind of never-ending tit-for-tat terrorist attacks Iran uses its proxies for. 

Meanwhile, the irony is that ISIS is doing to Iran what its proxy Hamas did to Israel. The difference, of course, is that Hamas is located primarily in Gaza, so Israel knew where to strike. But striking ISIS is like whack-a-mole. By vulnerable contrast, Iran is like a sitting duck.