But here’s all you need to know about this controversial and contentious issue, which Hillary Clinton’s supporters threaten will cost Barack Obama the election if he’s the Democratic nominee:
Ever since Obama built up a commanding lead in pledged delegates by winning an unprecedented streak of primary victories throughout February, Hillary has been predicating her nomination on getting the totally discounted primaries in Florida and Michigan to count…in full.
Recall that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) decided to ban all delegates from these two states from the nomination process as punishment for holding their state primaries on dates that violated party rules. And since then, its decision has hovered like a dark cloud over this year’s campaign amongst Democratic contenders for the presidency.
So when the party’s Rules and Bylaws Committee met on Saturday to reconsider its ban, there were great – though clearly anxious – expectations that this cloud would finally be lifted. Alas, it was not.
Because, after very adversarial deliberations, the Committee decided by a vote of 27 to 0 in the case of Florida and 19 to 8 in the case of Michigan to limit each of their respective delegates to only a half vote at this summer’s Democratic Convention.
Unfortunately, for Hillary, this resulted in a net gain of 87 delegates for her and 63 for Barack Obama, which does little to dent his insurmountable lead amongst pledged delegates.
No doubt this is why she decided to cherry pick the Committee’s decisions; i.e., by accepting the Florida compromise, which gave her everything she wanted, but rejecting the Michigan compromise, which gave her only half of what she wanted. More ominously, she also reserved her right to take her fight (for “everything”) all the way to the Democratic Convention in August: party unity be damned.
Never mind that even if she got exactly what she wanted in every respect, Obama would still have maintained his insurmountable lead. Because, according to the Associated Press, Obama now has 2,067 of the new total of 2,118 delegates needed to clinch the nomination; whereas, Hillary has only 1,911.
Therefore, no matter how well Hillary does in the final primaries tomorrow, it will continue to be mathematically impossible for her to overtake Obama in pledged delegates. And regular readers will affirm my prediction that the coveted superdelegates will ultimately ratify his lead to seal his claim to the nomination.
(Incidentally, with a guaranteed minimum of pledged delegates from tomorrow’s primaries, Obama will need only 25 of the remaining 207 uncommitted superdelegates to win, and I suspect he has already secured them and is only waiting to roll them out on Tuesday night or Wednesday.)
Thus, even though I called this race effectively over months ago, it will be technically over tomorrow night after all of the primary votes are finally counted.
Finally, no matter the defiance and rage that has Hillary’s supporters (especially middle-aged white women) now vowing to vote for McCain instead of Obama, I have no doubt that they will come to their senses on election day and vote for Obama.
Moreover, I believe they will do so at the behest of their standard bearer, Hillary Clinton. And this, notwithstanding that she is primarily responsible for stoking their patently absurd and hysterical complaints about the “elitist” Obama and his “sexist” supporters stealing the nomination from her.
(Besides, why would any of these abortion-rights feminists vote for an anti-abortion candidate like McCain who has vowed to appoint Supreme Court justices with a mission to overturn Roe v Wade, which granted women the right to get an abortion…?)
However, I feel obliged to disabuse anyone of the notion that Obama will have to choose Hillary as his VP running mate to get her supporters to support him. After all, Saturday’s vote by the Rules and Bylaws Committee makes it clear that Hillary’s (and Bill’s) influence amongst Democrats is grossly exaggerated. Besides, even if putting Hillary (and Bill) on the ticket could help him win the election, their personal and political baggage would simply weigh down his presidency. Therefore, he’d be a fool to pick her (them)….
NOTE: Hillary won yesterday’s primary in Puerto Rico by an overwhelming margin. But since this will do nothing to help her win the nomination, and since Puerto Ricans can’t even vote in the presidential election, I see no point in commenting on it any further.
Nevertheless, this begs the question: why even hold a presidential primary in Puerto Rico if the Constitution prohibits Puerto Ricans from voting in presidential elections?
FYI: The only way Puerto Ricans will be able to vote is if Puerto Rico changes its status, by referendum, from a self-administered U.S. territory to become the 51st state of the United States of America, or if a constitutional amendment is passed which grants them this right. But neither option seems likely any time soon.
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