Fighting bird flu…by vaccinating 14 billion chickens?

Can you imagine these vaccinated chickens being “finger lickin’ good”?

Much has been made in the international media about the looming pandemic of (avian) bird flu. Yet, it has been difficult to reconcile “informed” fears that this H5N1 strain of the flu could kill more people than the reported 50 million who died from a similar strain in 1918, with the fact that only fowl seemed at risk of infection. And, quite frankly, neither wholesale slaughter of infected chickens nor news of China’s surreal plan to vaccinate 14 billion farm birds has been terribly worrisome.

But that was last week…

Because wire reports this week confirm what World Health Organisation (WHO) scientists predicted would be the tipping point towards a new flu pandemic to rival the outbreak of 1918: namely, that the virus has now made the quantum leap from infecting chickens on small farms with relatively little human contact to infecting a variety of birds on large factory farms with nearly swarming human contact.

Therefore, it is not surprising that alarm was sounded all over the world yesterday when China reported its first human infections (3) that resulted in 2 swift fatalities. Because there’s scientific consensus that human infections in densely populated areas can spread like wildfire. And, if every 2 out of 3 people infected die, then the 50 million deaths in 1918 will seem modest by comparison.

Naturally, such an apocalyptic prospect compels one to wonder about the feasibility and effectiveness of vaccinating 14 billion birds. After all, it begs this rather elementary question:

Have the Chinese developed a vaccine that inoculates birds, but not humans, from the H5N1 flu strain?

Because it seems far more sensible to vaccinate 6 billion people and just wring the necks of the 14 billion chickens. (Perhaps I’m missing something fundamental here….) Nevertheless, if the Chinese vaccine is only for the birds, then one wonders why it was unavailable to the British and other governments that have executed millions of chickens upon the mere suspicion of having one infected bird in their midst.

Tamiflu seems destined to become the most coveted little pill since Viagra

Meanwhile, western pharmaceutical companies – including the infamous Chiron – are racing to develop an effective bird flu vaccine…for humans. And, to date, Roche’s Tamiflu is generally recognised as the most promising. Unfortunately, Roche claims that, under ideal conditions, it will be 2007 before it reaches full manufacturing capacity; which – even then – will produce enough Tamiflu for only 300 million treatments annually.

Alas, this means that if bird flu begins spreading at the rate scientists predict, either tomorrow or 5 years from now, most of us will be like sitting ducks.

But don’t worry, be happy…

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