Henry Kissinger is confessing his sins. He now admits he misjudged Russia and its war in Ukraine. But he’s still hedging his bets. So it’s not quite a “deathbed” conversion.
Kissinger admits he misjudged Russia
Kissinger called for negotiations at the Davos Economic Forum last year. But he said the ideal solution would be a return to the status quo ante.
That would allow Russia to keep Ukrainian territories, which it began seizing in 2014. Because, he said, attempting to take it back would constitute a “new war against Russia itself.”
But that was then. Kissinger sang a different tune at that annual forum this year.
The former secretary of state has implicitly acknowledged that he dramatically misjudged Russia, its war against Ukraine, and the qualities of Ukraine’s leaders and population. …
NATO membership for Ukraine, which he had long opposed, would be an ‘appropriate outcome.
(The Hill, February 1, 2023)
Kissinger’s diplomacy is all about appeasement
Kissinger is offering a “land-for-peace” deal. Yes, that Sisyphean rock of Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations for over 50 years.
Then there’s the reputational interest he has in doing so. After all, Kissinger’s geostrategic pronouncements gave Putin cover to invade Ukraine.
Putin spent years telegraphing his intent. He based it on the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Because he decried that as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” And he was hell-bent on putting this geopolitical Humpty Dumpty back together again.
Yet Kissinger advised appeasement. He saw no problem when Putin began gobbling up parts of Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia). He saw no problem even when Putin began doing the same to Ukraine itself (Crimea and The Donbass).
Putin was pursuing a plan to reclaim Ukraine for Mother Russia. Everyone could see that. Hell, he even boasted about emulating Peter the Great by doing so.
Yet Kissinger kept urging Chamberlainian appeasement. Swiss neutrality, he insisted, was Ukraine’s destiny. Even then, Kissinger did not see how badly he was misjudging Putin.
Xi of China is now telegraphing his intent to emulate Putin by invading Taiwan. But, here, too, Kissinger is urging appeasement. This, just as he did 50 years ago – when this prospect seemed little more than a Chinese pipe dream.
But only one thing explains his constancy. Kissinger can’t help blaming democratic leaders for the geopolitical transgressions of autocrats.
Kissinger always admired autocrats more than democrats
Invading countries and committing war crimes should make any leader a pariah. But not for Kissinger. He thinks democratic leaders are naïve for raising political and moral objections.
He champions Faustian engagement with them. Furthering one’s own geopolitical interests should be all that matters.
Except that, he’s now sounding just like those democratic leaders. Because, instead of Swiss neutrality, he’s urging Ukraine to go the way of Finland and Sweden. That, of course, is to become a member of NATO. Because this would protect them against Putin’s autocratic regime…
He’s a 99-year-old man. So you might think senility is causing his about-face. But it has far more to do with guilt.
Putin couldn’t care less about going to his grave with genocidal blood on his hands. And he makes no distinction between that of Russians and Ukrainians. But Kissinger cares – a lot.
That brings me to his warning about the United States being on the “edge of war with Russia and China.” Putative experts are propagating this self-fulfilling prophecy over all media. Kissinger is joining their growing chorus.
Granted, China flew a spy balloon across the United States a few weeks ago. And that might seem like a menacing harbinger in this respect. But nothing could be further from the truth.
Because the porcupine way Ukraine is bedeviling Russia is instructive enough. And Xi keeps telegraphing that he’s learning.
For example, Xi insists he does not want war in Ukraine. So it follows that he does not want war in Taiwan. And this, despite the war games he keeps ordering to menace Taiwan.
Besides all that, there’s the MAD concept of nuclear deterrence. A war between nuclear powers would assure mutual destruction. Every leader of a nuclear power is all too mindful of this.
That’s why there has been no war between the US and Russia for 70 years. And it’s why there won’t be one between the US and China for another 70.
Kissinger may not realize it, but this MAD concept is why he’s advising Ukraine now to join NATO. Because joining NATO is the best way for Ukraine to protect itself from Russia…