Albert Einstein is noted for saying that, in the midst of every crisis, lies great opportunity. And so, in the midst of the genocidal war Russia is waging in Ukraine and the food and energy shortages that have Sri Lanka reeling, lies great opportunity for China.
Specifically, these crises present opportunities for China to finally emulate the United States as a superpower benefactor; that is, instead of just claiming dominion over the developing world as a superpower loan predator.
Many people may not realize it, but the war in Ukraine is causing collateral damage all the way down in Sri Lanka. The following from an Al Jazeera report on April 8 summarizes this fairly well:
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Russia and Ukraine, whose vast grain-growing regions are among the world’s main breadbaskets, account for a huge share of the globe’s exports in several major commodities, including wheat, vegetable oil and corn, their prices reached their highest levels ever last month.
Ukrainian ports have been blocked by a Russian blockade and there is concern about this year’s harvest as the war rages on during the sowing season. …
Soaring food prices and disruption to supplies coming from Russia and Ukraine have threatened food shortages in countries in the Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia where many people already were not getting enough to eat.
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Of course, given the media’s focus on the war in Ukraine, you’d be forgiven for having no clue about the protests in Sri Lanka. Again, the following from an Al Jazeera report on May 9 summarizes this fairly well:
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Sri Lankan Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa has been forced to resign after a day of violence saw five people including a ruling party member of parliament dead, with reports emerging of people attacking properties linked to the ruling party across the island nation. …
Sri Lanka has suffered months of blackouts and dire shortages of food, fuel and medicines in its worst economic crisis since independence, sparking weeks of mostly peaceful anti-government demonstrations. … The Indian Ocean island nation is on the brink of bankruptcy and has suspended payments on its foreign loans. It defaulted on its foreign debt of $51bn last month.
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To be fair, though, the war in Ukraine and the Covid pandemic only exacerbated years of dynastic corruption. Most notably,
The Rajapaksas expanded funding for the military even in peacetime and engaged in a form of crony capitalism that likely enriched the family’s fortunes. They touted major Chinese-funded infrastructure projects — including a port in their family’s hometown of Hambantota — that not only turned into wasteful white elephants, but made Sri Lanka into one of the world’s leading exhibits of what happens when a nation gets indebted to Beijing.
(The Washington Post, May 11, 2022)
Sure enough, I have been warning developing countries like Sri Lanka for years about the political hazards of getting hooked on Chinese debt. I refer you to such commentaries as “World beware: China Calling In (Loan-Sharking) Debts,” February 3, 2010, “China Putting Squeeze on The Bahamas. Your Country Could Be Next,” October 22, 2010, “Countries Queuing Up to Become as Indebted to China as US,” September 15, 2011, “South Africa Joins Ranks of Countries ‘Selling Its Sovereignty to China’,” October 3, 2014, and “China Using Loans to ‘Colonize’ Developing World,” August 20, 2018.
This last of those includes this prescient lament:
China [is] getting countries hooked on debts the way cartels get people hooked on drugs. …
This report focused on the squeeze China is putting on Sri Lanka and Djibouti, forcing them to cede control of deep water ports to help it ‘expand its military footprint.’
But it’s only a matter of time before similar reports will be written about China doing the same to other indebted nations. This is bound to be the case throughout the Caribbean and Latin America and across Africa and Eurasia, particularly with countries linked to its famous ‘Belt and Road Initiative’.
That said, this is where the opportunity for China comes in. Recall the public show China and Russia made of signing a deal to seal their friendship with “no limits” on February 4. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 is clearly testing those limits
Because the way Russian President Vladimir Putin is having China to play for Russia the Axis role Japan played for Germany during World War II must be unnerving Chinese leader Xi Jinping. This, especially given how Russia has been aping in Ukraine all of the genocidal ravages and war crimes Germany committed during that war.
But here are four ways Xi can claim for China some disassociation from all the unspeakable crimes against humanity Russia is committing in Ukraine, and win international goodwill that would make the United States green with envy.
- Prevail upon Putin to allow Chinese peacekeepers to escort all remaining Ukrainians out of Azovstol steel plant in Mariupol – to avoid the inhumane spectacle of continuing to bomb until they starve to death.
- Prevail upon Putin to allow Chinese peacekeepers to guard the vast grain-growing regions to enable Ukrainian farmers to sow seeds to maintain the country’s role as one of the world’s main breadbaskets.
- Prevail upon Putin to allow Chinese ships to escort all tankers carrying grain from Ukrainian ports for export to developing countries.
- Announce that, given the unforeseen hardships and disruptions Covid and the war in Ukraine have caused, China will allow all debtor nations to restructure debts commensurate with their particular circumstances.
Frankly, this should be a no brainer. But, given the epic blunders Putin is making in Ukraine and the Sisyphean travails Xi is having with his Covid-Zero policy in China, they may have no brains between them.
For example, it is self-evident that Putin thinks blocking Ukrainian grain exports is a clever counter move to Europeans blocking Russian oil and gas imports. But he’s clearly too stupid to figure out that, far more than Ukrainians and Europeans, he’s hurting Sri Lankans and other people throughout the developing world – many of whom might be far more inclined to support Russia than Ukraine.
Before this Ukrainian misadventure exposed him, the consensus among military strategists was that Putin is a chess grand master and US presidents mere checkers players when it came to geopolitical thinking and maneuvering. But I always dismissed Putin as a strutting thug who probably couldn’t tell the difference between a chess board and a Ouija board.
In fact, here is how I presaged his blunders in Ukraine in the comments section to a report on his military buildup at Sky News on January 29:
This former KGB man is reputed to be a great military strategist who plays chess while others play checkers. Yet this former comedian [Volodymyr Zelensky] has him boxed into what appears to be an effective military checkmate. I mean, this is like Magnus Carlsen being checkmated by Ricky Gervais…
Did I call it, or what!
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