Yesterday’s secession referendum in Crimea held all of the suspense of presidential elections in North Korea. Reports are that 97 percent voted in favor. We await reports on the fate of the daring three percent who voted against….
Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula declared itself an independent nation Monday after its residents voted overwhelmingly to secede and try to join Russia, while U.S. and European Union diplomats discussed sanctions against Russia for backing the referendum.
(The Associated Press, March 17, 2014)
The United States and European Union responded, with one accord, by announcing targeted sanctions against several Ukrainian and Russian officials who they claim “wield influence [and were] responsible for undermining the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.” And they pointedly reserved the right to add the name of every Russian oligarch of note to their hit list – if Russia does not retreat. Never mind that they dare not ever include the name of the person most responsible, Vladimir Putin. In addition to banning them from traveling to the United States and Europe, these sanctions will freeze all of their assets outside Russia.
Russia has vowed to retaliate … in kind. Except that I can’t imagine any American or European having any desire or need to travel to Russia, or having any asset there that, if frozen, would cause existential concerns. By contrast, I suspect every Russian billionaire would consider a ban on travel to the United States and Europe tantamount to a prison sentence. What’s more, there probably isn’t a single one of them, including Putin himself, who does not have far more money stashed away in bank accounts and holding properties outside than inside Russia. After all, as Senator John McCain famously mocked over the weekend, Russia is little more than an oil and gas syndicate masquerading as a country, which guarantees no protection of private property rights.
Therefore, “in kind” in this case would be akin to the U.S.-EU striking Russia in the head with a sledgehammer, and Russia retaliating by slapping them in the face with a feather. In fact, apropos of its status as a de facto syndicate, the only impactful weapon Russia has in its sanctions arsenal is the oil and gas it supplies to Europe.
Ironically, according to a March 8 report by Al Jazeera, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that such a U.S.-EU strike would have a “boomerang effect.” But it’s generally recognized that, if Russia escalates tit-for-tat sanctions by turning off the oil and gas it supplies to Europe, it is Russia that would suffer the boomerang effect. After all, Russia is far more dependent on the cash Europeans supply than Europeans are on the oil and gas Russia supplies. This is why I maintain that playing its oil-and-gas card would only amount to Russia cutting off its nose to spite its face.
Indeed, nothing demonstrates how ineffectual any retaliatory sanctions would be quite like Putin’s handpicked chief propagandist at the Russian state news agency broadcasting today the truly self-immolating threat that, if the United States does not stay out of Russia’s fight with Ukraine, Russia will turn the United States into radioactive ash. Talk about a boomerang effect: this idiot needs to be told about the mutually assured destruction (MAD) principle that has made any military confrontation between Russia and the United States prohibitive since WWII, and will continue to make it so in perpetuity.
Which is why the only real move Russia has is to use its formidable military might to make right its neo-Soviet claim on more territory in Ukraine as well as on territories in other places like Belarus, Moldova, and the Baltic states. Now that would be retaliation more worthy of the resurgent superpower Putin wants Russia to be.
But this quote explains why I am so stupefied:
Obama keeps insisting, ‘this is not a Cold War game of chess.’ Except that, to Putin, it is; and he’s playing to win.
Putin takes Crimea; your move, Obama….
(“Putin Takes Crimea. Checkmates Obama?” The iPINIONS Journal, March 1, 2014)
After all, these U.S.-EU sanctions seem a relatively small price for Putin to pay for taking Crimea. Why, then, is he allowing his apparatchiks to react to them as if he’s the one who has been so checkmated now that they have no choice but to behave like suicidal Bolsheviks?
Well, all I can say is, your move, Putin….
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Putin takes Crimea…