Another week, another coup
Military coups in Africa are far more regular than presidential elections in America. Africa has had 486 attempted coups since 1950 (214 successful), whereas America has had only 59 elections (and 1 attempted coup).
So, waking up this morning to breaking news of a coup in Gabon was hardly surprising.
Military officers in Gabon said they were seizing power Wednesday, just minutes after President Ali Bongo was declared the winner of a controversial election marred by violence and allegations of vote rigging. …
Gabon is generally considered more stable than other countries that have experienced unrest in recent years, but it now appears set to join a growing list of junta-led states — including Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali and Sudan — that create a geographical belt of turmoil across sub-Saharan Africa.
(The Washington Post, August 30, 2023)
American democrats cultivating African autocrats
The analogy to Dr. Frankenstein and the monster he created is apt. America has led Western countries in helping African countries transition from colonialism to democracy. That often meant propping up ‘benign’ dictators, especially if they were willing to sport a pro-Western hat during the Cold War.
For them, stability was critical, so democracy was expendable. That’s why they had no scruples about bribing military dictators to impose stability.
Only that explains the long, iron-fisted rule of men like Mubarak of Egypt, Sese Seko of DR Congo (fka Zaire), Obiang of Equatorial Guinea Mbasogo, and Museveni of Uganda.
Western countries preferred that to the messy business of tribal factions vying for power. After all, that risked the kind of civil strife now raging in countries like Sudan and Libya.
But this also meant turning a blind eye to African strongmen using billions in Western aid to fund obscenely lavish lifestyles. And this, while global charities raised billions more in a vain attempt to end poverty in Africa.
The Bongos have ruled Gabon for over 50 years. And they flaunted their ill-gotten riches ostentatiously. But dynastic rule like theirs has been the norm in Africa. Indeed, it’s notable that the general the coup leaders have tapped to rule is a cousin of the ousted Ali Bongo.
The point, though, is that America keeps training the military men who keep mounting military coups against African leaders America supports. The irony would be laughable if it were not so tragic.
Americans should be experiencing an uneasy sense of déjá vu. In the last two years, U.S.-trained officers have overthrown West African governments at least four times. There are indications that other graduates have undermined civilian governments in other portions of the continent. …
US Africa Command (AFRICOM) can’t explain why there has been a surge in coups. … That position reflects convenient ignorance, at best.
(CATO Institute, April 19, 2022)
China and Russia: The New Saviors?
Post-colonial Africa is a sad mess of disorder, poverty, disease, and corruption. Sure, African leaders deserve most of the blame. But this mess also reflects how much Western leaders failed in their mission to build African nations that can govern, defend, and sustain themselves.
Africans are now welcoming military coups. And who can blame them? After all, Western countries promised democracy would bring better living standards. Yet, more than 50 years later, that promise remains a pipe dream. In step China and Russia.
China has been the largest investor in Africa since 2010. And it has spent that time building infrastructure and strategic alliances across the continent. In other words, China has been doing far more than sending billions in foreign aid for venal dictators to use as their piggy bank. Unsurprisingly, many Africans now perceive China as a more benevolent patron than America.
Meanwhile, Russia hasn’t just been twiddling its thumbs. With its Wagner mercenaries, Russia is providing military support to match China’s economic support.
So, wannabe African dictators feel they have nothing to lose and everything to gain by mounting coups. Not least because they’ve seen the Taliban humble the US and the Mali coup leaders humiliate France.
But the lesson China and Russia are teaching these newfangled African autocrats is that the more ruthless you are, the more likely your regime is to survive. Indeed, Russian President Vladimir Putin just gave a dramatic lesson in autocratic survival. That does not bode well for African dissidents living under de facto dictatorships.
African solutions or just more African problems?
I fear the days of Africans policing themselves are long gone. And, yes, they showed they could by forcing Gambia’s strongman, Yahya Jammeh, into exile and facilitating the ICC arrest of Liberia’s strongman, Charles Taylor.
Today, Bongo somehow released a video, pleading for democratic friends to rescue him. But Gabon’s coup leaders have nothing to fear.
ECOWAS, the regional authority, is busy eating humble pie after giving Niger’s coup leaders seven days to return to their barracks. Their ultimatum ended on August 6 with a whimper. And the AU, the continental authority, is aping the EU by issuing a statement condemning this coup. But it’s so toothless that it doesn’t even threaten consequences.
There’s no denying the bipolar shift afoot between democracies and autocracies. And the trend is such that even democratic stalwarts like South Africa might not be safe from the coup contagion.
And trust me, China and Russia are watching gleefully, waiting for more African coup plotters to overthrow democratic rule and embrace their brand of authoritarian rule. Think of it as “Cold War II – on the African Front.”