Russian President Vladimir Putin made Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko an offer he could not refuse: he told Yushchenko that if Ukraine’s 47 million “orange revolutionaries” wanted to continue receiving gas from Russia to cook their food, heat their homes and drive their cars, they would have to pay four times as much for it. When Yushchenko refused, Putin made good on his threat and cut off the gas supply!
But this is the kind of behavior one might have expected from Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez or Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. As it happens, Putin’s provocative action has conjured up Cold War memories of Soviet domination that have unnerved many Europeans.
[Putin fires first salvo in Cold War in Europe, The iPINIONS Journal, January 3, 2006]
No one has been more critical than I of (now “Prime Minister”) Vladimir Putin’s attempts to reassert Russia’s Cold-War sphere of influence over the satellite countries of the former Soviet Union. And, as the opening quote suggests, I have been particularly concerned about his use of the natural gas Russia supplies to (and through) unabashedly pro-western Ukraine as a political weapon (in this case, to punish Ukrainians for rejecting his communist puppet, Viktor Yanukovich, in favor of Yushchenko as president.)
But my solidarity with my favorite ex-communists, the Ukrainians, is not unconditional. Indeed, as the related articles below will attest, no one has been more critical than I of the petty internecine battles amongst Ukrainian leaders that have caused their governing coalition to fall three times since it was formed just three years ago.
Now I fear their petty mindedness and myopic ambitions are not only making Putin’s domineering interest in their domestic affairs seem altruistic but are also undermining their relationship with western allies whose favor they covet so desperately.
Admittedly, I do not pretend to know all of the details involved in this ongoing dispute. But it seems the Ukrainians are trying to have their cake and eat it too. Specifically, this latest episode is over the amount Russia charges Ukraine for natural gas and the amount the Ukraine charges Russia to ship that gas through its pipelines to the rest of Europe.
But the sticking point seems to be the Ukrainians’ refusal to pay the same price for Russian gas that other European customers pay. Never mind that the 50% discount they enjoyed until last year was based solely on the legacy of the Russian Cold-War sphere of influence they now reject so indignantly.
Of course it follows that just as newly independent Ukraine should pay market price for Russian gas, Russia should pay market rates for the transshipment of its gas through Ukraine.
That said, I actually sympathize with the order Putin gave today to cut off all gas supplies; especially given credible reports that Ukraine has been “siphoning off tens of millions of cubic meters of gas meant for Europe from its transit pipelines”. After all, this passive aggressive action is clearly preferable to the alternative: military intervention to protect a vital national interest.
In fact, it would not surprise me to learn that Putin is already considering plans to use this dispute as a just cause to invade Ukraine. Though, frankly, this cause would be no less just or credible than the one US President George W. Bush used to invade Iraq. And the Georgians know all too well that Putin is not one to spare the rod on an unruly (former) dependent territory.
At any rate, I suspect EU leaders will take a more active role in resolving this dispute now that millions of Europeans are facing the coldest winter in history without gas to heat their homes and cook their food. Specifically, given their historical wariness about incurring the wrath of an a hostile Russia, they will prevail upon Ukrainian leaders to make whatever concessions are necessary to appease Putin.
It is unacceptable that the EU gas supply security is taken hostage to negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
(EU spokeswoman Pia Ahrenkilde)
More to the point, however, both Ukraine and Russia have too much to lose (in terms of international good will and income), if it persists much longer. In fact, Ukraine must be mindful that this dispute is only furthering Putin’s wish to derail them from the track they’re on to join NATO; and Russia must be concerned that it is forfeiting revenues needed to fund its campaign to show off its revived superpower status around the world.
Accordingly, I predict that this dispute will be resolved within days.
NOTE: About 80% of Russian gas to Europe is shipped through Ukraine. This is why, despite considerable political and financial obstacles, the Russians have launched an aggressive project to build alternative pipelines that bypass the territory of their former comrades. But I suspect the Ukrainians will live to regret forcing the Russians to go this route….
Related Articles:
Putin fires first salvo in Cold War in Europe
Update on my favorite ex-communists: the Ukrainians
With mission accomplished in Georgia, Putin orders ceasefire
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.