Civil War II
America is marching into Civil War II – eyes wide shut. Indeed, few seem to care. I have written many commentaries in this regard. And the titles alone seemed alarming enough – as these three attest:
- “Civil War II Looms Larger as Texas Suppresses Voting Rights and Bans Abortions” on September 2, 2021.
- “Jan 6, the New ‘Lost Cause‘ Millions Seem Willing to Die For” on January 6, 2022.
- “Historians Are Raising Alarms About Another Civil War. What Took Them So Long?” on August 15, 2022.
Of course, MAGA Republicans are the ones jonesing for this war. They seem possessed of morbid curiosity or fatalism about Donald Trump turning American democracy into an autocracy – the dangers that portend be damned. But who are we to judge? After all, the rest of us seem possessed of morbid curiosity or fatalism about climate change and AI – the dangers they portend be damned.
And so, this year’s General Election looms like The Battle of Winterfell in Game of Thrones: The Democratic coalition is like “the living armies,” voting to preserve democracy in America. The Republican coalition is like “the Army of the Dead” led by the White Walkers, voting to turn America into a living hell.
From Fort Sumpter to Eagle Pass
I cited my commentary on the civil war machinations in Texas advisedly. Because Texas seems hell-bent on triggering this new war. And, in this sense, history doesn’t just echo; it reverberates.
Consider the first shot fired at Fort Sumter in 1861 that triggered the Civil War. It was more than a military attack; it was the eruption of tensions between North and South that had been simmering for decades.
In a similar vein, Alabama Governor George Wallace’s infamous “Stand in the Schoolhouse Door” in 1961 nearly triggered Civil War II. His standoff against the Kennedy administration’s mandate to integrate American universities was more than a dispute over state’s rights. It was defiance in defense of segregation as much as that shot at Fort Sumter was in defense of slavery.
Now, consider the ongoing standoff between Texas Governor Greg Abbott and the Biden Administration over border control. It’s playing out like a combination of those two triggering events.
Like Southerners firing at Fort Sumter and Wallace standing in the schoolhouse door, Abbott’s order to the Texas Military Department to block Border Patrol access at Shelby Park in Eagle Pass is not just about state’s rights. It’s about Republican ideology trumping federal authority. And this standoff, much like those in the past, threatens to push the long–simmering tensions between Red States and Blue States to a boiling point.
The Red offensive under the banner of Trumpism
But Texas is only the tipping point. Because the Supreme Court, Congress, state legislatures, city councils, and school boards are all battlegrounds where Republicans have been waging civil war for decades (albeit by other means).
The Supreme Court, with its Republican stripes, has become less of a judicial referee and more of a Republican Seal Team in this soft civil war. On hot-button issues like affirmative action, abortion rights, and voting rights, its rulings are more like battles won than justice rendered.
In Congress, Republicans have used filibuster and gerrymandering tactics like weapons of mass political obstruction. With mastery of legislative ninjitsu, they have made Congress seem more like a Roman Colosseum than a legislative body.
And in the states, Republican warfare is no less intense. Because Red State legislatures have been busy crafting laws that seem to take pages from George Orwell’s playbook. For example, they have:
- camouflaged voting restrictions as “election integrity”;
- dressed up anti-LGBTQ legislation as “religious freedom”; and
- enacted gun laws that would make John Wayne do a double-take.
Nothing is animating this Red offensive quite like Donald Trump and his brand of Trumpism. And MAGA Republicans are eating up his dystopian rhetoric of nationalism, populism, and a dash of authoritarianism, like starving Gazans gobbling up food from humanitarian relief workers.
Re-nominating Trump as the 2024 presidential candidate would merely formalize his role as the leader of the Republican coalition. Menacingly, he pledged to MAGA Republicans that “I am your justice…I am your retribution.” And that’s more battle cry than campaign rhetoric. So, Democrats, beware.
That’s why, more than a definable political party, Democrats are fighting against a surreal ideological movement (aka, a personality cult). This movement thrives on false claims of election fraud, attacks on the free press, and flirtations with authoritarianism. As such, MAGA Republicans are not just eroding democratic institutions; they’re trying to reshape the American political landscape and culture.
The Blue resistance under the banner of democracy
Given the Republicans’ Trumpian boasts, you’d think the Democrats are like sitting ducks in their Blue States. But Democratic victories in congressional and state elections belie that boasting. After all, Democrats are even flipping Republican seats in Red States like Florida and Virginia.
Even so, Democrats must fortify their defenses. That means passing state laws that protect voting rights, ensure access to abortion, and safeguard LGBTQ rights. Democrats must channel Gandalf on the bridge, firmly declaring “You shall not pass!” against any threats to these freedoms.
But Democrats must also go on offense. That means mounting an intellectual and moral offensive to educate the public, mobilize voters, and craft narratives that turn the spotlight on these issues. Democrats need to be the storytellers, painting a picture of what’s at stake and why it matters. Biden is right; democracy and all the freedoms Americans take for granted are on the ballot.
On war footing
Republicans get off on flouting their gun fetish and talking about armed conflict. But I suspect most Republicans would dodge any kinetic civil war – just like the infamous way their cult leader dodged the Draft. Besides, they know a real civil war between Red States and Blue States would make the Jan 6 insurrection look like a genteel tea party.
In any event, unlike the muskets and cannons that decided the outcome of the First Civil War, words, laws, and ideologies will determine the outcome of this one. The battlegrounds are not battlefields but courtrooms, legislatures, and the court of public opinion.