Chirac’s (French) Referendum May Deal a Death Blow to the Unification of Europe!

In recent days, Jacque Chirac has appeared more like an emperor issuing increasingly desperate decrees to save his empire than as President of France presenting a referendum for his countrymen to decide their national destiny. But whether imperial or presidential, Chirac’s leadership of his country seems tenuous at best because the French are in a rebellious mood that would make Maximillien Robespierre very proud indeed.

Humbled Chirac making a final plea for a YES vote on the EU Constitution…

Therefore, as the restive citizens of France cast their ballots in today’s referendum on the EU Constitution, President Jacque Chirac sits uneasily waiting for word of a humiliating defeat (to be politically guillotined, as it were). After all, despite his attempts to cajole, charm and even terrorize Frenchmen to return a “YES” result, they seemed not only inured to his overtures but also defiantly disposed to vote “NO” – as if to spite him.

Chirac has warned of dire consequences if his referendum fails: the decline of France; balkanization of the continent; the marginalization of Europe as a player on the world stage; no effective counterweight to American unilateralism in global affairs; and, most worrisome to Chirac, his default as the putative leader of a unified Europe.

On the other hand, his rabble rousing adversaries (Eurosceptics) have preyed on metastasizing anxieties and xenophobia throughout Western Europe to incite near hysterical aversion in France to the proposed EU Constitution. Indeed, they seem to have usurped Chirac’s titular authority as the defender of France by warning of dire consequences if his referendum succeeds: massive unemployment; loss of vested social entitlements; and indiscriminate immigration that would contaminate their values, ethics, customs and language and, ultimately, destroy the national character of France.

But it’s more than the rebellious rhetoric of the Eurosceptics that may provoke the French to reject the EU constitution. After all, there seems a rude awakening in France that in its drive towards the complete unification of Europe, the government has run over the national rights of French citizens and neglected their economic and social welfare whilst denying them any chance to participate in this process.

Moreover, rising unemployment, reductions in pension and the profound sense that their long cherished national pride now counts for nothing have plunged France into a national malaise that many Frenchmen seem to think only a No vote will cure.

In fact, Chirac’s timing for this critical national (European) referendum could not have been more inauspicious. But, if he had only taken a moment to reflect on the demise of two of France’s most revered Presidents, he would have been instructed to be more egalitarian in his efforts to change the daily lives of these proud Frenchmen so fundamentally:

After all, in 1969 after being in power for over 10 years and assuming imperial prerogatives, President Charles de Gaulle was forced to resign when his referendum on government reforms suffered a humiliating defeat – primarily because Frenchmen thought he had become as concerned about their economic hardships as Marie (let them eat brioche) Antoinette was about the plight of their suffering compatriots on the eve of the French revolution.

Then, in 1992 after being in office for over 10 years and assuming similar imperial prerogatives, President Francois Mitterrand was disrobed of his invincible aura when his referendum to approve the Maastricht Treaty on European Union (the center piece of which was the abolition of the French franc) won a paper-thin majority – again because Frenchmen felt that Mitterrand was ignoring their economic woes to pursue his own ambitions of European grandeur. And, ironically, a young politician with his own presidential / imperial ambitions used this surprisingly poor result to hasten Mitterrand’s resignation from office. Of course, that politician is the man who now finds himself in Mitterrand’s uncomfortable shoes, Jacque Chirac.

Indeed, today’s vote is fated not only because it comes 10 years into Chirac’s presidency but also because the economic and social malaise are very similar to prevailing conditions that provoked Frenchmen to reject the leadership initiatives of de Gaulle and Mitterrand.

But this anticipated No result begs inevitable questions about what it would mean for the future unification of Europe and the pivotal role of France within that European Union. For example:

Will a No result deal a fatal blow to the complete unification of Europe by triggering irreversible retreat to national capitols all over Europe (especially since all 25 member states must ratify the Constitution before it comes into force)?

Will a No result be regarded as a vote of no-confidence in Chirac’s leadership and hasten his political demise (to George Bush’s restrained delight to be sure)?

Clearly the answers to these questions will vary depending on the respondent’s affinity for a unified Europe. But the informed response is yes – to all of them! Moreover, a No result on the EU Constitution will cause a curtain of uncertainty to descend over Europe that will plunge Europeans into recriminating and redrafting chaos, indefinitely.

Note: A miraculous YES vote would only give the EU Constitution a short reprieve because the Dutch are even more disposed to vote NO – regardless of today’s outcome – which will trigger all of the unsettling consequences for Europe delineated above.

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