China and the United States have irreconcilable differences over Taiwan. China considers Taiwan a “prodigal” province. The US vows to defend Taiwan if China invades to reclaim it for the Mainland.
China vs. US over Taiwan
Here is how Reuters reported yesterday on the current state of play:
China toughened its language towards Taiwan last week, warning after its stepped-up military activities that ‘independence means war’ and that its armed forces were acting in response to provocation and foreign interference.
China believes Taiwan’s democratically-elected government is bent on declaring independence, a red line for Beijing. President Tsai Ing-wen says Taiwan is already an independent country called the Republic of China, Taiwan’s formal name.
Fears abound that China and the US are on an unalterable march of folly towards war. But the final part of my title should allay all fears. And that, despite all the bellicose rhetoric, military maneuvers, and war drums.
In other words, it’s all much ado about nothing. Primarily because of the precedents Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan set. China knows “victory” would be pyrrhic at best. And Taiwan knows US defense guarantees might not be worth the paper they’re written on. I delineated all the implications two years ago in “China Lays (Political) Claim to Taiwan” on January 3, 2019.
Besides, China and the US appreciate the need to cooperate on vital issues. Trade, climate change, and nuclear non-proliferation are chief among those issues. It might be China’s manifest destiny to reclaim Taiwan. But neither China nor the US will allow that to blow up their relationship.
China must reclaim Taiwan to replace the US
Even so, China is hell-bent on replacing the US as the most powerful nation in the history of the world. And geopolitical consensus has practically conceded this as a fait accompli.
And yes, China is on an inexorable course to do so. Every economic, military, and geostrategic metric indicates that. And, just as his predecessors were powerless to change this trajectory, President Joe Biden is too. Indeed, nothing telegraphs China’s trajectory quite like this:
The Chinese economy brought in more foreign direct investment than any other country last year, knocking the United States from its perch atop the list. …
China managed to largely get coronavirus under control within its borders last year, despite being the first nation to be hit with the deadly disease.
(CNBC, January 24, 2021)
I’m not so sanguine. To explain why, I need only cite geopolitical consensus in the 1980s that had Japan on a similar, exorable course. And look how that turned out.
Clean up your own backyard
Rome found out that no world power can hold dominion over foreign lands while its homeland is falling apart (or tearing itself apart – as invariably proves to be the case). America is finding that out too. Perhaps that’s why China is trying to tame the unruly “provinces” of Hong Kong and Taiwan … by any means necessary.
Apropos of which, China never intended to abide by the fiction of “one country, two systems.” And it is systematically neutralizing dissension among its people and division among its provinces. Doing so is a necessary precondition for bestriding East and West as the world’s first truly global superpower.
China is indoctrinating consent. But it would do well to hire Western Ad agencies and PR flaks to make totalitarianism seem every bit as fashionable as yoga. In which case it would only be a matter of time before rich Westerners begin buying second homes in Shanghai. That is, the way rich Chinese have bought second homes in New York City.
More to the point, China seems determined to force this transition of superpower status in our lifetime. And, like the transition of US presidential power from Donald Trump to Joe Biden, there will be altercations and skirmishes along the way. I explained why in “Hong Kong Done” on November 17, 2020.
Finally, many people, especially in the developing world, harbor illusions about China reigning as a better superpower than the United States. But I’ve written commentaries that should disabuse anyone of them. I refer you in this regard to “China Tightening Noose Around Taiwan’s ‘Independence'” on July 26, 2018.
Simply put, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who’d rather live or invest in China than the US. Enough said?
But fasten your seat belts. It’s going to be a bumpy few years.