Say what you will about Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, he knows how to withstand street protests. He, of course, is the Peter of Chávez disciples. More to the point, he has been ruling for years in the face of the kind of street protests that, after mere weeks, forced fellow disciple Bolivian President Evo Morales to turn tail and run.
Evo Morales, the former president of Bolivia who resigned under pressure from street protests and the military, was granted asylum in Mexico on Monday. …
After the resignations by top government officials in the line of succession, a leading opposition politician said she was ready to take the reins of power until new elections could be held. …
A video circulating on social media showed dozens of people exploring what was reported to be Mr. Morales’s ransacked home, with furniture toppled, items broken and political slogans spray painted on walls in red.
(The New York Times, November 11, 2019)
Continuing the analogy, I’m not sure if this makes Morales the Judas or Doubting Thomas of Chávez disciples.
Whatever the case, reports would have you believe that Bolivia finally awakened from its Chavismo nightmare on October 21. That’s when Bolivians took to the streets to protest Morales’s attempt to emulate Maduro by rigging elections to stay in power.
But here in part is how I presaged this awakening in “Bolivia’s Woes Expose Chavez’s Counter-Revolution as Little More than a One-Man Three-Ring Circus,” September 7, 2006:
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In fairness to Chávez … he’s not solely to blame for Bolivia’s political strife and economic stagnation. Like many regional leaders, its newly elected president, Evo Morales, failed to appreciate that it was Venezuela’s oil, not Chávez’s agenda, that allowed him to play Robin Hood to his country’s peasants and thumb his nose at the United States.
On the other hand, his disciples have now realized not only that do they not have the revenues to fund similar welfare programs; but, far more disillusioning, that – despite his oil wealth – the aid Chávez offers is more rhetorical than financial (as I argued in “PetroCaribe: Let’s Look This Gift Horse in the Mouth,” June 30, 2006).
The irony should not be lost on anyone in this region that Chávez is providing more subsidized oil to the Chinese than to the Latin American and Caribbean leaders who bought into his socialist counter-revolution hook, line and sinker. Indeed, it behooves these leaders to be mindful that, like Morales, they too could soon find the poor mobs they once led in protests – to demand welfare guarantees from putatively pro-American governments – now marching in protest against them. …
Meanwhile, notwithstanding his attempt to put his money where his mouth is, Chávez is facing growing disillusionment with his socialist agenda even at home in Venezuela. And he’s becoming sufficiently paranoid about his grip on power that he’s resorting to the old canard of accusing opposition leaders of planning a coup.
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I cannot overstate the plainly predictable nature of Morales’s downfall. My early commentaries on Chávez’s rule attest that I hailed his plans for greater social inclusion and redistribution of wealth.
But it did not take long for me to realize that he was more robber baron than Robin Hood. As such, he never bothered to ensure the sustainability of the welfare programs he implemented to help the poor (especially among Venezuela’s indigenous peoples). This is why Morales and other disciples were doomed to failure – despite their best intentions.
That said, one can hardly blame Morales for flying the coop to escape a coup. After all, military leaders told him in no uncertain terms that he had to go.
As it happened, he only did what I advised Maduro to do in “Venezuela Finally Awakens from Chavismo Nightmare,” December 9, 2015, namely,
- get blanket immunity (for himself and his family) in exchange for his immediate resignation; and
- oppose efforts by Chávez’s family and cronies to ride his coattails to a safe haven. Leave them to suffer come what may.
Except that, instead of seizing this opportunity to go, Maduro seems hell-bent on honoring Hugo Chávez’s legacy by ruling Venezuela longer than (Fidel) Castro ruled Cuba. I duly marveled in “Maduro Defying (and May Outlast) Trump, Just Like Assad Did Obama (and Castro Did Kennedy),” May 6, 2019.
But I remain convinced that it’s only a matter of time before military leaders tell him in no uncertain terms that he has to go. In “Venezuela Assassinates ‘Rambo’ Coup Leader,” January 25, 2018, I delineated the reasons why they see him as little more than a leftist ‘militant dreamer’ – who is to Chavismo what Steve Bannon is to Trumpism.
Meanwhile, despite Morales’s resignation, Bolivia seems headed for the kind of civil unrest and economic strife that have characterized life in Venezuela for years.
Related commentaries:
Bolivia…
PetroCaribe…
Venezuela…
Rambo coup leader…