Biden’s passivity invited this tragedy

Yesterday, an Iran-backed militia launched a drone strike against US troops in Jordan, killing three and wounding over forty. But this was just the latest such attack. Because Iran-backed militias have launched over 160 attacks against US troops in Iraq, Syria, and now Jordan since October 7. 

That, of course, is the day of infamy when Hamas terrorists attacked Israel, killing 1,139, raping hundreds, and kidnapping 240. Israel’s ongoing retaliation in Gaza has been so devastating that South Africa petitioned the International Court of Justice, accusing Israel of genocide.

But those Iran-backed militias explicitly stated that they targeted US troops to punish the unconditional US support for Israel’s retaliation. Despite this, President Biden kept giving them a pass because the damage they inflicted was relatively minor. Unfortunately, his failure to respond forcefully after those initial attacks made yesterday’s tragic attack inevitable.

Half-measures by previous presidents

Biden’s response mirrors those of his predecessors. Notably, in 1983, when terrorists killed 241 US troops in Beirut, President Ronald Reagan’s reaction drew attention. Despite his tough-guy rhetoric, Reagan hightailed it and ran. He ordered a complete withdrawal of US troops, signaling US preference for retreat in the face of terrorism.

But President Donald Trump did not acquit himself any better in 2019 after Iran shot down a US drone. He made a show of warning Iran that he was “cocked and loaded” to strike. But this wannabe strongman got cold feet when it came time to shoot. 

These episodes, decades apart, demonstrate a pattern of American passivity in the face of attack. Observing this, Iran could be forgiven for feeling emboldened. 

In this case, the fateful irony is that Iran reengineered that drone technology to mass-produce drones. It has even exported them to rogue states like Russia, which is using them to strike critical infrastructure in Ukraine to devastating effect. But the cruelest irony is that the drone that killed those marines in Jordan on Sunday was probably a drone reengineered with American technology. Thank you, Mr. Trump.

Netanyahu is like the scorpion, Biden, the frog

I maintain that Netanyahu is hell-bent on a long, drawn-out crusade to destroy Gaza. Because he thinks that will keep him out of prison, appease the Nakba-loving right-wing members of his governing coalition, and undermine Biden’s reelection bid because he knows it takes nothing more than idle flattery to get Trump to do his bidding.

That’s right. That’s the thanks Netanyahu is scheming to give Biden for his unconditional support, hence the scorpion and the frog analogy. 

But US unconditional support for Israel is fueling these attacks. So Biden should couple his retaliation against Iran-backed militias by making a public show of placing conditions on continuing US support. He should threaten to withhold US military and financial support unless Netanyahu endorses the universally touted two-state solution and agrees to an immediate ceasefire. A ceasefire would create conditions for the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. 

But Biden should also impose a travel ban on the warmongers in Netanyahu’s cabinet instead of on settlers in the West Bank. And he should get Israel to facilitate a safe zone in north Gaza. Israel should provide security for convoys to relocate Gazans there, open corridors for countries to funnel comprehensive humanitarian aid 24/7, and enlist Gazans to clean up and rebuild their homes. 

The diminishing fear of American superpower

Unfortunately, this war in Gaza is making a mockery of Israel’s vaunted reputation as a regional military superpower. And unconditional support is making the US look like a whale, with its Israeli “calf” in tow, just being eaten up by an Iranian “shark” and Iran-backed militias “piranhas.” 

But I cannot overstate how these ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are eroding respect for and fear of these two formidable nations. That’s why Biden’s response must be more than just a show of military might. It’s not merely about retaliation; it’s about strategic repositioning to restore balance and order in the region.

But here’s where the plot thickens. Beyond the immediate need to respond to threats lies a chessboard of global geopolitics. It’s a game where Russia and China have their own pieces, and they’re watching closely.

Russia, with its ongoing war in Ukraine, would find any distraction or entanglement for the US in Iran quite convenient. It might even embolden Moscow to pursue its objectives more aggressively. On the other side of the board, China is eyeing Taiwan with increasing interest. A bogged-down US in Iran could provide the perfect cover for an audacious move in the Taiwan Strait.

So here’s to Biden’s Goldilocks response: Devastating enough that it destroys the ability and will of these Iran-backed militias to continue their attacks. But not so devastating that it makes them feel like they have nothing to lose by continuing their attacks. For the record, strategic attacks inside Iran would be entirely consistent with this response. 

The stakes are high, and the room for error is minimal. Biden must navigate this complex geopolitical landscape with utmost caution. It’s a challenge that demands not just military prowess but strategic thinking and foresight. Good luck, Joe.