Islamic fanatics have Westerners so spooked that the people tasked with ensuring our national security are now imputing real-life significance to Islamic prophecies. Because it seems some of our intelligence experts actually bought the Cassandra warning that today, August 22, marks a holy day of reckoning for Shiite Muslims, which “could correspond to the end of the world”. Accordingly, they proffered analysis assuming that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on matters of state, would choose today to defy the West’s demand for Iran to give up its nuclear-weapons program and ignite the fires of Armageddon. (How? They did not say….)
Of course, since these are the same intelligence experts who bought the ruse that Saddam Hussein possessed stockpiles of WMDs, no one should be surprised that their analysis is short on facts and not even persuasive as a theoretical exercise. In fact, just to rub their ignorance in their faces, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei chose yesterday merely to restate the following wholly predictable decree:
The Islamic Republic of Iran has made its decision and, in the issue of nuclear energy, will continue its path powerfully… and it will receive the sweet fruits of its efforts.
I don’t think the world will end today, but let me hasten to disabuse you of any inclination to take comfort in his stealth reference to “nuclear energy”. After all, the West has good reasons to be up in arms (alas, only rhetorically) because no one believes that oil-rich Iran is continuing down this nuclear path for purely economic (energy) purposes. The Iranians covet nuclear weapons and are determined to have them, as I warned in this article over a year ago.
Meanwhile, our professional spooks seem unaware that it is not only a lunatic fringe of Islamic fundamentalist that is praying for a holy day of reckoning. After all, Christian fundamentalists have been mobilizing for their Judgement Day since the day Christ was crucified. Therefore, instead of alarm, their response to this fateful holy day may well be – in the words of their most famous convert, George W. Bush – “Bring it on!”
However, other experts with a firmer grip of the geopolitical realities we face have propounded that it is Iran’s success as puppet master of Hezbollah’s fight against Israel that has emboldened it to defy the West. But this analysis is equally flawed. Because, as indicated above, Iran’s modus operandi for dealing with the West was established from the time its ruling clerics anointed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as their political mouthpiece.
It’s far more instructive to note that Iran has never been guided or deterred by the patently feckless threats of UN inspections and sanctions; especially since it knows that the French, Russians and Chinese are always willing to break them to suit their own political and economic agendas.
Indeed, it seems clear that Iran is following the path North Korea blazoned to nuclear power. And, far from being irrational in their pursuits, the Iranians have made the rational calculation that only the United States and / or Israel would dare use the only means available to stop them from acquiring nuclear weapons: military force!
But, given the U.S. quagmire in Iraq and Israel’s humiliating defeat by a rag-tag band of Hezbollah fighters, is there any wonder that Iran has not only defied the West but is now sitting in the nuclear catbird seat – grinning like a Cheshire Cat?
NOTE: Here’s how I concluded my analysis of Iran’s looming confrontation with the West in July 2005:
….despite endorsing his policy, it seems unlikely that politically correct (and gun-shy) Europeans – including the UK – will join Bush’s coalition of the willing if he decides to use force to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Yet, military confrontation with Iran seems inevitable. Because, unlike the North Koreans, the Iranians do not appear to be engaged in a game of chicken just as a bargaining ploy for more food. And, even if Bush and the Europeans determine that it is politically prohibitive to use force to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, the Israelis might deem it a matter of national
survival to launch preemptive strikes unilaterally – just as they did in 1981 when Saddam was poised to go nuclear.
In addition, click here to read why I think Israel would be justified to launch a preemptive strike against Iran.
ENDNOTE: For the record, I do not believe that Iranian clerics and Ahmadinejad are any more suicidal than Osama bin Laden. Therefore, I do not believe they want nuclear weapons to fulfill some religious end-of-the-world prophecy. Just like bin Laden, they are committed to an Islamic ideology, which calls for the destruction of the West, instead of Islamic theology, which requires them to live in peace.
I do not believe the Iranians would ever ignite a nuclear war – by launching a direct attack against Israel or the U.S. However, I fear that – just as they were happy to funnel weapons and money to an amorphous faction like Hezbollah to launch attacks against Isarael – they would be all too happy to supply nuclear weapons to terrorists to use against us…with their covert blessings.
Indeed, consider this secular version of Armageddon: Iran develops nuclear weapons – as I expect it will. Then a nuclear bomb, which could be concealed in a briefcase, is detonated in London or New York City killing hundreds of thousands of people. What would we do – when Iran vehemently denies any role in this dastardly deed? After all, North Korea could be responsible….
And, can’t you just see the schadenfreude on the faces of the French, Russians and Chinese…?
Iran nuclear weapons
Paris ib says
Never let the facts get in the way of an opinion. Iran currently imports 40% of its oil needs.
ALH ipinions says
Paris ib
I appreciate what a challenge it might be for you to follow my comprehensive analysis of Iran’s nuclear program. Unfortunately, like almost every issue worth commenting on, this situation does not lend itself to resolute or unimpeachable declaration of “facts”.
In this case, the following snippet from an article I wrote over a year ago might help you understand why your belief that Iran only intends to use its nuclear technology for economic (energy) purposes is misguided, if not naïve:
“Western leaders are apprehensive about Ahmadinejad’s radical views primarily because Iran is feared to be close to (and intent on) developing nuclear weapons. And, they are confounded by his evolving leadership, which can be fairly described as enigmatic and charismatic in equal parts.
For example, Ahmadinejad says, quite reasonably, that:
‘[Our] peaceful nuclear technology has been the result of the scientific development of the young people of Iran. Iran has a right to achieve scientific development in all fields….We need the peaceful nuclear technology for energy, medical and agricultural purposes, and our scientific progress. We need it for the development of our country and we shall carry on with it.’
Now, only hegemonic Christian fundamentalists could argue with that. And, this is precisely why sober and fair-minded Europeans have been negotiating with the Iranians for years to ensure that the development of their nuclear technology comports with these peaceful declarations…. [However], it is instructive that Iran is following North Korea’s negotiating strategy of doing everything possible to thwart EU efforts to verify the “peaceful” design of its nuclear programme.”
Moreover, if it’s not too much of a bother, click on the link to my article on Iran’s declared final solution for the state of Israel and see why I’m of the informed opinion that a civilized and sensible international community should not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.