Hooray! Cease-fire in Lebanon…not!

The Lebanon cease-fire resolution came into effect this morning at 1:00 EST. However, I don’t know any sane person who thinks it will hold.

Of course, I understand the political factors that compelled Israel and Hezbollah to accept this patently-flawed UN resolution. But I’m indignant at the world leaders who brokered it (especially George W. Bush, Tony Blair and Jacques Chirac) knowing that this cease-fire resolution has no teeth and that they are more accepting than the warring parties are of its terms. After all, it’s self-evident that Israel and Hezbollah regard it as little more than an opportunity to regroup:

Hezbollah – to figure out new supply routes for more rockets and munitions from Iran, since Israel has bombed all roads, bridges and airport runways; and Israel – to figure out the flaws in its military strategy, since the more it claims to have degraded Hezbollah’s capabilities, the more rockets Hezbollah fires off and the more Israeli soldiers Hezbollah kills.

Indeed, as I questioned, rhetorically I assumed, in this recent article almost 2 weeks ago:

….[D]oes anyone have any confidence that the diplomats engaged in political warfare at the UN will negotiate a resolution that’s worth the paper it’s written on?

Because, I continued:

…unless a new resolution calls for a peacemaking force comprised of troops from countries like France, Russia, China, Egypt and Jordan (as opposed to monitors from Fiji and Togo), all of the talk at the UN is just a waste of time. After all, Hezbollah does not even need to look at Saddam Hussein’s violation of over 17 such resolutions between 1990 – 1999, with impunity (until the U.S. invaded in 2003), to know how much force a UN resolution carries. Because, it has fared pretty well – having violated UN Resolution 1559, which called for the “disbanding and disarmament” of Hezbollah, with rockets-red-glaring impunity (until Israel invaded a few weeks ago).

Yet it seems a perverse form of cognitive dissonance that the world is so focused on this new UN Resolution 1701, which again calls, inter alia, for the disarmament of Hezbollah. (You probably saw the ridiculous “Countdown to Cease-fire” promo that was featured on CNN and other cable stations – as if they were heralding a Happy New Year or marking something truly noteworthy like the launch of the space shuttle!)

Because, even though it signed on to the resolution, an emboldened Hezbollah has already vowed that it will not disarm under any circumstances. And no one believes that the Lebanese army and a contingent of UN soldiers (no matter how robust) will pick a fight with Hezbollah to enforce this critical provision of 1701.

Meanwhile, even though it also signed on to the resolution, a humiliated, if not defeated, Israel has already vowed that it will not withdraw its troops from South Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed; and that in any event, it intends to retain a substantial amount of the territory it gained to establish a demilitarized (cease-fire) zone on its own terms.

Therefore, given these realities on the ground, my cynical prediction – that this UN Lebanon resolution won’t be worth the paper it’s written on – seems more prophetic today than it was weeks ago….

NOTE: Here’s a chicken and egg question that might help explain why this war will never end: If Hezbollah maintains that it’s only retaliating against Israel’s bombardment, and if Israel maintains that it’s only retaliating against Hezbollah’s rockets, then which of these two armed forces do you think will be prepared (or required: Hezbollah by Iran, and Israel by the U.S.) to absorb the final blow for lasting peace? (Talk about a game of chicken….)

I fear lex talionis (a.k.a an eye for an eye) will determine the outcome of this conflict, not UN resolutions (now at 8 and counting…).

Israel, Hezbollah, war in Middle East