Of course, based on mainstream media reports, one can be forgiven the impression that Bush flew 23 hours to India and Pakistan just to be heckled and jeered by Muslim fanatics and to see himself burned in effigy; or that it’s India, not the UAE, that is the “pariah” state involved in the U.S. ports deal that has caused such incomprehensible furor all over America. But, for those of you who are more interested in the main events than in the sideshows, here is what this trip is all about:
Despite the dark cloud of terrorism (from al Qaeda and Islamic terrorist groups in Kashmir), Bush’s trip is all about the potential mushroom cloud of nuclear power. In his recent “State of the Union” address, Bush declared that America must be weaned off its addiction to oil, and that the best prescription for this treatment is nuclear energy. Therefore, as we say in the law, he has been effectively estopped from arguing that India (or any other democratic nation) should not drive a national energy policy fueled by nuclear power.
This is what the Indians will say to his face. This is what the Indians are determined to do. And, in this, I support them wholeheartedly. After all, with the categorical (or primal) imperative of having to provide energy for over 1 billion relatively poor people, India has a more legitimate right (and need) to generate nuclear power than any other country on earth. (Communist China, with its totalitarian government forfeits this claim – assuming one regards democracy and human rights as indispensable national values)
Moreover, given the environmental concerns about fossil fuels, nuclear energy is the only sensible option for India, notwithstanding
Chernobyl and Bhopal. Therefore, the only appropriate inquiries Bush can make in this context concern the extent to which India’s nuclear program will be geared towards civilian-economic, as opposed to strategic-military, use. (And yes, Pakistan would also like to know.) But even these inquiries might seem paternalistic. Because Indian leaders are acutely aware that their national destiny lies more in building up their economy than in building nuclear weapons for a mutually assured destruction (MAD) arms race with Pakistan (and China); only to end up like the Soviet Union.I am convinced that India wants to go nuclear to become an economic superpower, not to be able to wipe Pakistan off the map. And it’s worth keeping in mind that, unlike Iran, India had the good sense not to sign the
Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. Therefore, suggestions by Americans that it is a pariah state for developing nuclear weapons, in violation of this treaty, are legally unjustified, economically unsustainable and politically hypocritical.
For these reasons alone (and recognizing the immutable law of fait accompli), Bush really had no choice but to grant what India wanted most from his visit: namely, a signed agreement with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh welcoming India into the nuclear club with full honors and privileges.
I feel constrained to note, however, that even though it is the right prescription for India’s economic growth, nuclear power is not a national panacea. Because India faces the same combustible challenges that have led to so many riots all over China in recent years (although its totalitarian government has done a pretty good job of keeping press reports on this simmering economic insurrection suppressed). But the Delphic challenge for India is ensuring that enough of the unprecedented benefits of its booming economy “trickle down” to hundreds of millions of poor Indians; so that they do not become disillusioned with its economic reforms. With almost 50% percent of its population under age 25, however, an economy growing even at an astronomical annual rate of 10% may prove incapable of providing enough jobs to avoid conflicts between India’s haves and have-nots.
Indeed, in this context, India’s bilateral tensions with China are of far greater national concern that its tensions with the United States. Because both countries have similar energy demands and are competing for many of the same outsourcing jobs and foreign direct investments from western countries. However, because of its reassuring democratic legacy, India seems not only more likely to weather these inevitable domestic conflicts but also better positioned to attract and harness increasing inflows of capital without the fear of political instability (another Tiananmen square) jeopardizing those investments.
Therefore, here’s to India: May it grow as the elephant walks and not as the tiger runs (and tire-out like the Asian tigers of the 1980s did…).
NOTE: I’ve paid little attention to Pakistan in this column, because Bush plans to pay little attention to it on his trip. Indeed, the U.S-Pakistani bi-lateral relationship is so firmly established, that the only reason Bush is making a courtesy call in Pakistan is to avoid Musharraf feeling scorned. Click here to see what I mea
n.
US and India, nuclear proliferation, Pakistan
Dave says
ALH
From all of the reports on Bush’s trip, I can say without doubt that you have explained the challenges facing America, India and China better than most experts I heard talking about this. Brilliant. I really like the last image with the flags because many people say India and China will dominate the world this century the way the US and Soviet union did for most of the 20th century
Mary Ballard-Bernstein says
I also enjoyed the integrated flag graphic and agree with Dave’s comment about india and china dominating the world. It seems logical that that may be the new world order…
Anthony you are clearly one of the most brilliant writers I have ever come across and will always have a captivated audience…
Anonymous says
I agree with the comments above. I have been a captivated reader of this blog since last June and I have never been disappointed by a single post. Like Dave, I too am impressed with ALH’s grasp of this issues that are most important to US-Indian relations. As an Indian, I am even more so.
I am concerned, however, that Americans do not fully appreciate that its not only Bush who is falling out of favor. Think how every Muslim must feel about the reaction to the ports matter. ALH makes this point and asks the key questions in his post on this issue but I worry that the Americans do not comprehend the consequences of this.
Mary Ballard-Bernstein says
“Think how every Muslim must feel about the reaction to the ports matter. ALH makes this point and asks the key questions in his post on this issue but I worry that the Americans do not comprehend the consequences of this.”
Yes, unfortunately for many the muslim religion is a very touchy subject and bitter pill to swallow. Unfortunately, muslims are viewed collectively by many persons as radical, fanatical and destructive. I give people the benefit of the doubt and do not judge anyone as guilty by association because of race or religion. My 13 yr. old son, however, and many of his peers become upset and enraged when they sees individuals dressed in burqas or turbins. Alas, there does not appear to be an easy answer to mending fences. It is bad and unfortunate for both sides of the equation. I would love more than anything to see harmony established in this world and all races to get along.
Mary Ballard-Bernstein says
addendum to my earlier comment
Unfortunately I don’t think a Utopian world or society is ever in the cards. Human nature will always exhibit power struggles when more than one human is involved. There will be no prolonged Kumbayah instances, however, it would be nice to see a few. Kumbayah my friend…Kumbayah… it is a nice dream…
Jennifer says
Mary
I hope I wasn’t too hard on you. Thanks for taking it so well.
Hi Anthony
It looks like the world is beginning to discover what I’ve known for over a year. You really have an incredible mind.
I didn’t know anything about the nuclear situation with India and Pakistan before reading your blog. Now my co-workers think I’m a genius thanks to you. I think it’s because your views are so informed and fair.
Now that I can see more of you in the new picture at CNN, you are even better looking than I thought.
Will you ever put up a photo on iPINIONS?
Anonymous says
what this deal does is proves that the iranians are right to ignore the americans and go right ahead and build thier bombs. who knows, once they have them. another hypocritical two-faced us prisident might fly over like bush with his tail betweeen his legs to embrace them too.
Mary Ballard-Bernstein says
No you were not too hard on me Jennifer … i enjoy reading your comments very much as well…Happy Friday everyone albeit a wet one here in northern cali!!!