Scientific polls have become to political elections what sonograms are to pregnancies: a method of predicting results that make the actual event somewhat anticlimactic. Moreover, when political candidates incite nothing but visceral disgust or soporific moans then voting becomes little more than a pro forma chore. And this, in fact, is the pregnant state of British elections that are due on Thursday.
Alas, the polls show that, despite much love lost, Labour and Tony Blair will be returned to power for a 3rd consecutive term. But therein lies the paradox of British politics: After all, the polls also indicate that Prime Minister Tony Blair could not even be elected traffic warden in direct national elections; yet, the Parliamentary system will allow him to retain his premiership on the coat tails of reelected members of his Party. (Because as Party leader, Blair becomes prime minister automatically if Labour candidates win more Parliamentary seats than any other Party).
Labour Leader PM Tony Blair backtracking his way into another term at 10 Downing Street…
Nevertheless, many political pundits find it incomprehensible that 8 years of Tony Blair have not given rise to such familiarity as to breed utter contempt not only for him but also the members of his “New Labour” Party.
(It’s noteworthy that saving American Presidents from this contemptuous fate is precisely what motivated the enactment of laws that limit their service to 2 consecutive four-year terms – reasoning that eight was quite enough: what a coincidence!)
Of course, if overstaying his welcome were Blair’s only political liability, that occasional smirk on his face would’ve already metastasized into a pathological joker’s grin. The reality, however, is that Blair’s political viability is hemorrhaging from a thousand cuts.
First and foremost are the wounds being inflicted by lingering doubts and serial disclosures about his support for the war in Iraq. And in this regard, some of the unsettling questions besetting Blair’s trustworthiness include:
Did he and Bush conspire to oust Sadaam Hussein long before 9/11 made WMDs the alleged clear and present danger they became?
Specifically, did Bush’s coterie of neo-con advisers cajole Blair into bartering the lives of British soldiers for a chance at winning the Nobel Prize (jointly with Bush) for brokering peace between the Palestinians and Israelis and spreading democracy throughout the Middle East?
Did Blair order or have prior knowledge of the “sexing-up” of intelligence reports to further his war agenda?
Moreover, should Blair pay a political price for driving Dr David Kelly to suicide for trying to defend Blair’s contorted argument that Dr Kelly’s intelligence dossier set out an unambiguous case for war against Iraq? and
After disregarding the inconvenient rulings of the Law Lords (against war), did Blair then finesse the findings of his compliant attorney-general, Lord Goldsmith, to conjure up a legal justification for war?
But beyond these questions that hang like an albatross around his political neck, there are other liabilities from Blair’s 8-year premiership that really should seal his doom. They include:
Blair’s hand in transforming UK politics into little more than a public relations and marketing spectacle by retaining a shadow cabinet of pollsters and spin doctors as political advisers;
The scandalous association with a lifestyle guru and her fraudster boyfriend that ensnared the Prime Minister and his wife, Cherie, in a series of embarrassing political lapses – including revelations about Cherie taking baths with her guru and plying the dubious credentials of the boyfriend to invest in flats at cut-rate prices (Cherie’s tearful apology for these lapses notwithstanding); and,
Cherie Blair and the indispensable lifestyle guru who made her and the PM’s life a living hell!
The fact that for the past year when they weren’t trying to untangle Blair from his web of lies on Iraq, his spin doctors were providing tongue-in-cheek explanations for the soap opera that became the adulterous affair and subsequent child-custody battle between Blair’s Home Secretary and his high profile (married) mistress. (An ongoing farce which, incidentally, makes the Profumo affair seem relatively chaste and rivals the “sleaze factor” that ended former PM John Major’s political career and elected Blair for the first time.)
Nevertheless, it is a measure of the utter fecklessness of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats that, despite having to contend with these glaring liabilities, Labour will be returned to power on Thursday. In fact, the Conservative Party stands as Labour’s most credible challenger; yet, there is no more damning indictment of its futility than the decision by the Party’s most respected politician, Margaret Thatcher, to leave the country in disgust over its Election Day prospects.
Ultimately, though, Tony Blair seems positively blessed to have Conservative Michael Howard and Liberal Democrat Charles Kennedy as leaders of the opposition Parties.
Conservative Leader Michael Howard putting the best face on his faltering campaign prospects…
After all, Michael Howard seems more like the avenging Daddy of Tory boy wonder William Hague (who Blair sent into premature political retirement after a crushing defeat at the most recent national elections) than a candidate worthy of matching political wits with Tony Blair. But at least Hague’s impish disposition and well-honed debating skills held-out the promise (however unrealized) of exposing Blair for the complacent and formulaic politician he’d become. On the other hand, try as he may, Howard has been unable to escape looking and sounding like a nagging uncle in his exchanges with Blair.
Liberal Democrat Leader Charles Kennedy sweating for a little attention and respect!
Meanwhile, Charles Kennedy comes across like John the Baptist preaching in the UK wilderness the gospel that he alone among the Party leaders saw the divine wisdom of keeping England completely out of the war in Iraq. But even though vindicated on Iraq, Kennedy remains just a little too ingenuous and insipid to capture the attention of a cynical, apathetic and terminally conflicted British electorate.
Of course, it’s difficult to imagine what either Howard or Kennedy could have done to increase their chances of upsetting Blair. Especially since nothing short of having an affair would’ve attracted attention to their dull campaigns. And, anyone who doubts the power of an
extramarital affair to excite public interest in an otherwise dull politician should recall the Clark Kent to Superman transformation of former Conservative Prime Minister John Major’s public persona after former Conservative minister Edwina Currie revealed details of their torrid affair. Too bad for Major that the British electorate found out about this intriguing dimension of his personality only after he was deposed as Party leader – for being too dull.
Former PM John Major in his public (Clark Kent) disguise…Who knew?
If not an affair, perhaps Howard and Kennedy should pray for Laura Bush to fly to England, ostensibly to talk about childhood literacy, and blast Blair’s education policies as pay back for Cherie Blair traveling to the US on the eve of elections last November, ostensibly to talk about international human rights law, and lambasting Bush’s internment of terror suspects at Guantanamo Bay.
Or, perhaps die-hard Labourites will finally become irretrievably turned-off by Tony Blair’s patent attempt to disassociate himself from George Bush and the Iraq quagmire by enlisting Bill Clinton to endorse his leadership. (Rather like putting lipstick on a pig, but leave to the politically shameless Blair (and Clinton) to try it on anyway….)
Yet, all indications are that – even with record low turnout – voters will return Blair and Labour to power. The only consolation for Blair’s critics is that aspersions cast on his character throughout the campaign (especially vis-à-vis Iraq) will probably plague his leadership well after the election. And, in a poetic twist of fate, this might compel Blair to belatedly honour the secret deal he made with his deputy PM (and arch enemy) Gordon Brown to step aside after two terms as Prime Minister – notwithstanding Blair’s dissembling about such a deal.
Of course, if honesty and integrity had any real value in British politics, Charles Kennedy would lead his Liberal Democrats to a stunning upset and become the next UK Prime Minister. Hope springs eternal….
Click here for an easy to read comparative analysis of how each Party stands on the major campaign issues.
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